You know what that means. Tomorrow morning Hollywood will call a huge Executive Producer phone conference, where they will wonder what happened? They will throw ideas around, someone MAY mention that perhaps, PERHAPS, they used bad judgement with this film. And if Hollywood wants to survive, it's time to stop with all the in-your-face agendas. It will get very quiet on the phone line, then someone will quietly say "I think we need to make Brokeback Mountain 2, the public obviously needs MORE gay stories, until they understand". Someone agrees, followed by talking heads parroting moreMoreMORE. They hang up and start the same crap again, having learned absolutely nothing tonight/this year.
Which is why this was yet another night of me NOT watching the Oscars. The only thing I want from them anymore is to file Chapter 11.
Maybe your scenario is right. I've also read that Brokeback Mountain was hanging on in the theatres just for the Oscars. If it won, then they were hoping the box office would start to be better. If it lost, it would sink out of sight pretty fast.