Posted on 03/02/2006 11:54:36 AM PST by slowhand520
My link in post #36 should have been:
http://www.tarrance.com/battleground.html
[scroll down to Republican Strategic Analysis by Ed Goeas]
Thank God for W, a lesser man would have already broken under the strain.
LOL -- well, I did notice the link was to c-span...lol.
Did you also notice the questions listing programs..and asking voters if they would want their taxes to INCREASE for these programs, OR if the funding should be cut???
VERRRRRRRYYYY interesting results, IMHO>
Personally I am waiting for a Scrappleface poll showing Bush's approval rating has reached -10%.
And meanwhile, in other news, Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead.
sasafras, take some midal
A number of the pollsters projected that Kerry would defeat Bush, based on the idea that undecideds break to the challenger, but the actual final polls themselves didn't show Kerry in the lead.
Oh, right, because everyone is thrilled with the ports deal and thinks Bush is doing a great job.
It's like Harriet Miers, a storm that will blow through and pass. For the time being, though, I'd be pretty damn shocked if Bush's numbers didn't take a small hit based on how many of his supporters feel about this deal--which I think is much ado about nothing.
You said, in part: Party preference is volatile.
***
I agree, but party affiliation remains fairly constant. Does the democrat/republican/independent label in these polls refer to party "preference" or party registration? In my experience, observationally, people change parties infrequently, not at the development of the news favoring one party or the other. If the polls are citing party preference, that seems redundant to the favorable/unfavorable findings... but then again, I am no pollster.
Polling always slants with more Democrats because most Republicans have jobs and Democrats are at home eating cheezits and watching Oprah.
Has the Gallup poll been released yet?
And they are going to feel it, because as long as Fox wants to compete for the liberals in the news marketplace, they are going to have to deal with the fact that in a comparison of liberal news org vs. liberal news org., CNN has live news 24/7. Fox repeats at 7 PM Pacific until 4AM.
They are going to get hammered once Fox's brand equity starts to erode.
DU patient: "Dr, why is my Johnson turning orange."
Dr: "I don't know, let me ask you a few questions. Do you have any hobbies?"
DU patient: "Not really. I usually just sit at home and eat cheeze puffs and watch pornos."
What does the link say...for some reason I can't access it...
Ref: "Orange Johnson"
Thank you, I needed a chuckle.
There have been a lot of studies of that. You take x number of people and you survey them longitudinally over four, eight years. You'd be scared how often they change party loyalties. This week they're dems, next week they're pubs, and then back again. It's actually quite depressing.
I don’t remember those polls.
Yeah, MoveOn.org took out full page ads in the New York Times attacking Gallup for not including an equal number of Dems and Republicans --- and they were wrong.
Generally they ask which party people identify with. Many people live in states with weak party registration (something like 70% of Ohioans are undecided/independent, which does not match the existance of large percentages of partisans), no party registration (Virginia), or archaic registration that does not match reality (Kentucky is like 65% Democrat). By comparing exit polls to registration totals, one sees clearly that the identification in one's head is more important than the file down at city hall or the courthouse.
That is not correct.
Does the democrat/republican/independent label in these polls refer to party "preference" or party registration?
Neither, it refers to self-identity, which is basically a function of current preference. If you're a registered Democrat who just happens to be supporting Republicans at the moment, odds are you'll tell a telephone surveyer that you're a Republican. Countless studies back this up.
Thanks for the accurate data, Deb. We're sure not going to get it in the MSM...... OR on Fox.
When one person who supported President Bush on election day comes out and says they no longer approve of him, then I'll believe his ratings have slipped. But that hasn't happened, nor is it likely to.
People who voted for him may disagree with an individual decision he's made, but they're not disapproving of the overall job he's doing.
As has often been said, the only polls that are guaranteed to be accurate are the ones that happens in November. And HE is the one in the Oval Office.
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