Wrong on all accounts - First off UBL was never one to put out numerous video tapes (this is simply a myth, just like the kidney disease myth that was debunked by OGAs back in the late 90's).
The reality is the first few "videos" of UBL that made their way to the media after Sept 11th....were not "released" by UBL....but were "recovered" during U.S. military Ops.....(and then released).
Furhtermore UBL is much more concerned with staying alive then with putting out propaganda videos....Nor should one speculate that all video's or audios released by him have made their way to his intended destination???.....Some may have been "intercepted" shall we say...along the way.
UBL is very much alive and being hunted by brave warriors risking their lives 24/7. Everyone from the CIC to the members of these Teams are aware of this fact. Just as Zawahiri, M. Omar, Jalaluddin Haqqani,Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and a half dozen other HVTs remain alive in this region of hte world...so does UBL.
Understand...UBL is eking out a survival in (most likely) Pakistan's North West Frontier Province - We are talking approximately 40,000 + square miles of the most rugged terrain on earth.
Also understand the Afghan / Pakistan border stretches 1,500 milesroughly the distance from Washington, D.C., to Denver (just to get an idea of the size we are talking).
Throughout the NW Frontier & the Tribal Areas Pashtun tribes are completely in control. A group of warlords who are autonomous from any centralized Gov't - Pakistan troops (Gov't troops) haven't controlled these areas in over a century -
Again the terrain in this region of the world is some of the most brutal on earth -Making any sustained operations a complete nightmare. Let alone having to conduct any of these Ops in the black (as much as possible).
With that said, we are slowly encircling these HVT's....few survive 06 (IMO).
Your post to God's ear.