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What Will Europe Really Do?
Real Clear Politics ^ | February 14, 2006 | Victor Davis Hanson

Posted on 02/13/2006 9:50:03 PM PST by Daralundy

Nothing is quite as surreal as the Islamic world’s fury at the liberal and innocuous Danes. How could anyone wish to burn their embassies and kill their citizens, when they have always offered all the politically correct, multicultural platitudes and welcomed in any and all from the Middle East?

Now the furor over the cartoons, coming on the heels of the bombings in Madrid and London, the French rioting, the murders in Holland, and the failed European negotiations with the Iranian theocracy have shaken Europe to its foundations.

If the most liberal and tolerant states in Europe such as Holland and Denmark have the most problems with Islamic radicals, then what does that say about the continent as a whole? Why were not the calculating jihadists singling out a more unapologetic Catholic Poland that has larger contingents in Iraq and is far prouder of its Christian roots?

Do the Europeans sense that the more open, free-wheeling and non-judgmental the culture, the more it is hated by the jihadists? If Europe as a whole is more pro-Palestinian than the United States, disapproved of Iraq, and yet is still hated as much, is magnanimity at last exposed as appeasement—earning only contempt from an emboldened enemy?

Don’t look, however, for any overt expression of alarm. It is too much to ask of the European Union for now to go on the record supporting the right of Danish free expression or to demand an embargo of Iran as it approaches nuclear autonomy. Instead, expect the European reaction to be far more subtle: the same old public utopian rhetoric, but in the shadows a newfound desire to galvanize against the threat of Islamic fascism.

Here is what we can probably anticipate. First, will come a radical departure from past immigration practices. Islam will be praised; the Middle East assured that Europe is tolerant—but very few newcomers from across the Mediterranean let in.

There will be continued public furor over the American efforts in Iraq, but far greater secret efforts to coordinate with the United States—in everything from isolating the Assad regime in Syria to rethinking missile defense. For the past three years the post-colonial Europeans have wished the Americans to learn their imperial lessons by failing in Iraq. Yet it may well be that many in private will now wish us to succeed, if only in the hopes that such Middle East democracies will be less likely in the future to turn loose their mobs to burn European embassies and threaten their citizens.

We won’t see much public condemnation of Hamas, but more likely quiet efforts to pull the plug slowly on subsidies for such terrorists. The Europeans praised Arafat, then learned that he was singularly corrupt. Nothing disturbs a European more than to be swindled and damned as immoral in the process. Subsidies to Jew-hating Hamas terrorists only ensure both.

Europe will still talk about bringing Turkey into the fold of the West, but de facto is horrified at the thought that millions of a religion that empowers so many to go berserk over a few cartoons might soon comprise the most populous nation of Europe. I doubt any European diplomat will invest any political capital at all in restarting in earnest Turkish/European Union talks.

We can also look forward to more bizarre pronouncements such as Jacques Chirac’s warning about the French nuclear deterrent. In point of fact, Europe has no real defenses against a 9/11-like attack. They know it. So do the terrorists.

Crash an airliner into the dome of St. Peter’s or knock down the Eiffel Tower tomorrow: Europe has no mechanism to hunt down the perpetrators in the Hindu Kush, the Bekka Valley, or the wilds of Iran—much less, like the United States, to hold a rogue regime responsible.

Frustrated by its lack of military resources, but cognizant of the classical need to warn an enemy that more is to be lost than won from starting a war, France is reduced to bluster about nuclear weapons—threats that probably are either not believed or welcomed by the jihadists. In lieu of a credible military, Europe will send more tiny contingents to Afghanistan, remind the world that Britain and France are nuclear, and somehow hurry up to construct a conventional deterrent where there is now none at all.

Finally, the Europeans who despised the unilateral and preemptory George Bush will start to grate at his new multilateral side even more. Be careful what you wish for, especially when an American leader may now not necessarily be such an easy target of caricature—or may not always do the dirty work of fighting jihadists from Pakistan to the Sunni Triangle.

Instead, by letting the Europeans take the lead with the Iranian negotiations, and keeping nearly silent about the cartoon hysteria, the United States essentially has told the Europeans, “Here is the sort of restrained sober and judicious global diplomacy that you so welcome.”

Because of slated troop withdrawals from European bases, and a new American weariness with the old anti-Americanism, some Europeans are beginning to recoil at the idea that they might well be on their own—and in a war against fanatical enemies that they have appeased and without rational friends that they have estranged.

In response, we may see less of the anti-American rhetoric and a return to the Cold War slogans of a “strong Atlantic Alliance” and “an essential Nato,” as nuclear jihadists replace the fear of 300 Soviet divisions.

So now Europe is being thrust right into the middle of the so-called war against Islamic fascism. Once threatened, it will either react with a newly acquired Churchillian maturity to protect its civilization, or cave, in hopes that even more Chamberlain-type appeasement will satisfy the Islamists.

It should be a fascinating spring ahead.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Foreign Affairs; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: europe; vdh; victordavishanson; wot
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To: JMS

Thats a pleasant dream...


81 posted on 02/14/2006 12:40:47 PM PST by bill1952 ("All that we do is done with an eye towards something else.")
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To: Daralundy
Do the Europeans sense that the more open, free-wheeling and non-judgmental the culture, the more it is hated by the jihadists?

No, the problem is that the more open, free-wheeling and non-judgmental the culture the more the jihadists can get away with. A country that values and believes in it's culture will slap those jihadists down and slap them hard, otherwise as Michael Savage said, "Our enemy is willing to die for his beliefs but if we're not willing to kill to survive then the fight is lost"!!!

82 posted on 02/14/2006 12:41:37 PM PST by varon (Allegiance to the constitution, always. Allegiance to a political party, never.)
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To: Daralundy
At the core we are the same people we were one thousand years ago. When it is understood that our survival is at stake we will react as we always have...we will fight. Europe has faced this before..see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Martel

It's not a perfect example of course, history may repeat itself, but not precisely.

The likely outcome is a bloodbath.

83 posted on 02/14/2006 12:54:23 PM PST by Voltage
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To: bill1952

Bill, this thread shows how scary Europe is now and where it is heading thanks to the Demographics and the non judgemental Political Correctness which is rampant in Europe.


84 posted on 02/14/2006 5:49:12 PM PST by Grampa Dave (The NY Slimes has been committing treason and sedition for decades.)
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To: Hypervigilant
They'll attack islamo-fascism with unparalled zeal, just to show the world that they are NOT eunuchs.

Well, maybe, but I think they'll need to be slapped around some more first.

85 posted on 02/14/2006 5:55:00 PM PST by hinckley buzzard
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To: hinckley buzzard

Yes, they will require more pain be inflicted before the old european spirit rises up, and the soccer hooligans take matters into their own hands...


86 posted on 02/14/2006 6:26:40 PM PST by Hypervigilant (Cogito, Ergo FReep.)
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To: G.Mason
"Or Britan, or Germany, or Pakistan ... oops! I think the Packrats have them already. "

Point well taken. I mentioned France because I believe that they are further down that road than any other Euro country.

87 posted on 02/14/2006 10:41:23 PM PST by de Buillion (Give us your perverts, pedophiles, and sodomites. San Francisco wants YOU!)
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To: de Buillion
"Point well taken. I mentioned France because I believe that they are further down that road than any other Euro country."


Just my poor attempt at humor.

Like whistling in the dark. ;)






88 posted on 02/15/2006 1:38:00 AM PST by G.Mason (Duty, Honor, Country)
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To: monkeywrench

http://education.guardian.co.uk/faithschools/story/0,,1708826,00.html


89 posted on 02/15/2006 2:26:43 AM PST by Asereje
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To: Asereje

Incredible!


90 posted on 02/15/2006 9:25:57 AM PST by monkeywrench (Deut. 27:17 Cursed be he that removeth his neighbor's landmark)
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To: oldbrowser
What does it say about people who think you can appease them by being politically correct ? Exactly. Being politically correct is, 99% of the time, being incorrect.
91 posted on 02/15/2006 9:17:28 PM PST by RepublitarianRoger
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