I first met Allen back in 92 when he was running for governor and nobody thought he had a chance against Mary Sue Terry, but he won easily.
Back in early 2000, not a lot of people were thinking that GWB could win the nomination but he did. In 92, NOBODY thought Bill Clinton could get nominated but he did.
My point is that candidates often win nominations after impressing people on the campaign trail. McCain was not impressive in 2000 and since then he has really irritated the conservative base. Guiliani performed remarkably after 9/11, but he is way to liberal on abortion, homosexuality and the Second Amendment.
"I first met Allen back in 92 when he was running for governor and nobody thought he had a chance against Mary Sue Terry, but he won easily."
Like you, my support for him goes all the way back to 1992...well before the 1993 election. In fact, I was one of the original members of his steering committee. I don't say this lightly...but he's not ready to be the #1 on the ticket.
The reason that I like McCain is simple. He's the only potential candidate who has consistently supported a robust posture with respect to Iraq, the war in Afghanistan, and the overall war on terror. By this, I do not mean that he supports the status quo...but rather an expanded force posture.
As to social issues, if we don't win this war on terror the rest of it won't matter so much.
Finally, with regard to your comment that no one thought that Bush could win the nomination in 2000, I don't remember that at all. In fact, I remember that going back as far as 1998 he was regarded as the putative front runner.