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To: Travis McGee; Jeff Head

A lot of Iranian and Venezuelan oil is not being sold on world markets. Many times it's sold at a discount to curry favor with a particular nation. Forbes mag had an article how Cuba sends indentured doctors to Venezuela to minister to the masses of the poor who love them. In return Castro gets 100,000 barrels of oil a day from Venezuela.

We get our oil from the freely traded markets while China's lining up long term supplies under contract. Yesterday Iran abrogated a contract with India that was selling them oil a t $31/barrel

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Oil and gas are playing a growing role in world politics. Oil has become the lifeline of the modern industrialized society. The West has grown increasingly dependent upon the oil of the Third World countries. Russia has also become a very important supplier of gas to the Western European countries. As developing countries (like China and India) develop heir economies, their need for oil is also rapidly growing. They are trying to secure supply for their growing needs. This is leading to increasing competition for the existing resources. This is also giving more power to the oil-producing countries.

We have seen how Venezuela is gaining more clout in South America. Hugo Chavez has used oil as a very powerful leverage to advance his political goals. He has become one of the leading political figures in South America. He has used the oil money to oppose the policies of traditional globalization. He has spent the oil money for social welfare programs, and has shared the oil wealth with the poor people of the country. Evo Morales, the newly elected president of Bolivia, wants to follow footsteps of Hugo Chavez.

Oil has also played a very important role in the Middle East politics. Iran and Iraq are very good examples. Iran has become more and more defiant as its share of the Middle East Oil has grown. Both China and India have signed long-term oil deals with Iran for billions of dollars. It will be very difficult for China and India to vote against Iran. Iran is buying billions of dollars worth of arms from Russia. It has deals to develop nuclear energy with Russia. It will be very difficult for the Western countries to impose sanctions on Iran in the Security Council. Russia and China can veto any resolution against Iran.

Iran can cut back on its oil production and that can increase the prices of crude oil, which can jack up the prices of oil. This increase in the price of crude oil can hurt the western economies, which have become more and more dependent upon the Middle East oil. The terrorists have also learned to use oil as a weapon. They have attacked oil installations in Iraq and disrupted the oil production and supply. This has led to deepening of the crisis in Iraq and has led to an erosion of authority of the pro-American government. This is also leading to instability and anarchy in Iraq and may eventually lead to civil war and disintegration of Iraq.

In another example of oil playing a role in the world affairs is the visit of the Saudi King Abdullah to China and India. The Saudi king knows that China and India are going to become two of the biggest customers of the Saudi oil. China became the first country the king visited. After China, the king went to India where he was the chief guest at the Republic Day celebration in India.

Russia has found out that its vast energy resources are a powerful tool in pursuing its diplomatic objectives. Russia is increasingly flexing its energy muscle. A few years ago, Russia's economy was on the verge of collapse. But now, thanks to the growing demand for gas and oil, Russia has surplus budget. This newfound economic strength has revived Russia's desire to regain the status of an important player in world affairs. Russia has put pressure on its neighbors to reconsider their pro-Western stand. Russia, together with China, is trying to balance the influence of the Western powers. Russia traditionally has always had very close relations with India. A closer relationship between Russia and China will act as a big impetus for improved relations between India and China. Eventually, a grand alliance between Russia, China and India may lead to a new world order, where relations between the West and the East are more balanced.

It was the greed of the oil companies, which prevented any alternative source of energy for oil. It has made the whole world more dependent on oil. This has not only had serious political implications but also has compounded the environmental damage and global warming. Alternative sources of energy can be developed which will cause much less damage to the environment and in the long run, can also be cheaper. However, as long as we are governed by the traditional globalization, the welfare of humanity will not become the topmost priority. The traditional globalization has actually encouraged its opponents and achieved exactly the opposite results to what it intended.


15 posted on 02/02/2006 3:14:27 PM PST by dennisw ("What one man can do another can do" - The Edge)
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To: dennisw
" He has spent the oil money for social welfare programs, and has shared the oil wealth with the poor people of the country. Evo Morales, the newly elected president of Bolivia, wants to follow footsteps of Hugo Chavez."

Yeah,... sure. And I saw a pig flying the other day. And space aliens are living in undersea cities.

18 posted on 02/02/2006 4:21:16 PM PST by StormEye
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To: dennisw

A cutoff of the Hormuz will be quite a shock, a paradigm (and global ecnomy) shattering event.


19 posted on 02/02/2006 6:45:01 PM PST by Travis McGee (--- www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com ---)
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