India vs China : Who has the edge ?

Yahoo Finance ^ | 01/30/2006 | Jeremy Siegel

[MNJohnnie]

India. China is still an inverted pyramid. Most of the power and wealth is still concentrated in about 5% of the population. China is going to have to politically evolve before it can be a serious player. That evolution is likely to be....messy.

[Gay State Conservative]

IMO,the only things that India has in its favor are the fact that English is widely spoken and that it's possible to get a good education.

China has the numbers and they have the military might...which they'll always make sure that the world understands that they'll use it.

[Sandreckoner]

Neither will be the "dominant" economic power by the middle of the century.

[Alberta's Child]

China's political/legal climate is way too fouled up for it to be an economic power. Yes, it has "numbers" and "military might" . . . sort of like the Soviet Union did 25 years ago.

[SirLinksalot]

Neither will be the "dominant" economic power by the middle of the century.

OK, I Assume that it will still be the USA. But what about the SECOND MOST DOMINANT POWER ?

[Gay State Conservative]

Yes, it has "numbers" and "military might" . . . sort of like the Soviet Union did 25 years ago.

Were 50% of the things you found in stores....electronics,clothing,light bulbs,cooking utensils,etc,etc,etc labeled "made in the USSR" 25 years ago?

Was a roll of Kodak film sold 25 years ago labeled "made in the USSR"?

[gotribe]

We're talking food, right? I say Chinese. But I'm growing fonder of Indian as the years go by.

[AnotherUnixGeek]

India. China is still an inverted pyramid. Most of the power and wealth is still concentrated in about 5% of the population. China is going to have to politically evolve before it can be a serious player.

I'm not so sure about this - democratic rule doesn't always lead to the most efficient economic policy. For example, Indian government officials have to pay careful attention to rural farmers demanding energy subsidies, regardless of the economic impact. Chinese government officials don't need to care - they answer to the officials above them, not to voters.

[SENTINEL]

By way of comparison, I believe that India currently has more aircraft carriers than France.

Source: My recollection of research done @ Globalsecurity.org .

[dennisw]

I'm pulling for India. China is our enemy is trying to screw us via encirclement and securing oil supplies in 3rd world nations such as Iran and Venezuela

Never underestimate these Middle Kingdom egoists. For them all non Chinese are crap and they deserve to inherit the earth. They will partner up with Islam to do it

[JMS]

He doesn't take the caste system into account. As long as there is a huge population that is segragated from their society and any upward mobility there is a huge pool of talent that is not being taken advantage of. The thing is, it's not so much political as socio-religuous and therefore no political solution will be possible.

[MNJohnnie]

China has the numbers and they have the military might

India now has the worlds largest population.

[MNJohnnie]

We're talking food, right? I say Chinese. But I'm growing fonder of Indian as the years go

Haaaaa! I will have to go try some for dinner tonight!

[MNJohnnie]

Chinese government officials don't need to care - they answer to the officials above them, not to voters

For now. Ask the French Aristocracy circa 1795 what ignoring and exploiting the peasants got them.....

[indcons]

LOL....do you really think there is still segregation in Indian society?

[indcons]

The massive corruption and entrenched socialist bureaucracies in both countries are real problems.

[Sandreckoner]

"OK, I Assume that it will still be the USA. But what about the SECOND MOST DOMINANT POWER"

I don't think America will be the dominant economic power, either. We're really not the dominant economic power now. We're the largest single national economy by a huge margin, but the EU acts in many ways as a single entity (when it comes to trade, which is what we're talking about when we discuss economic dominance, which is also why it's folly to use PPP valuations for these discussions as they are not applicable to trade value) and is variously as large or slightly larger than we are in terms of GDP at the moment. I would not describe us as economically "dominant" even over Japan, which is the second largest GDP today and is less than half the size of our own GDP.

If China is larger by 2050, it will be only marginally so. India, I've never seen a projection that puts India's GDP larger than America's at 2050. Regardless, at best in 2050 if current circumstances hold we'll likely see three national economies measuring in the 30-40 trillion range, with no other national economy _remotely_ close. (Maybe 1/6th that value as the drop-off between the third of these three and the fourth economy coming after.) That's not a scenario of dominance for any one or two of those three versus any of the other three. Not even close. Doesn't matter if China slows and we perform better than critics expect and we retain our lead indefinitely, or if China keeps chugging along and we perform as poorly as Goldman Sachs as others predict and allow China to take the top spot.

[nickcarraway]

Wow, it's great to see what someone relevant like Jeremy Siegel has to say.

[ScreamingFist]

At this time China.....they are the "sleeping dragon" the USA was (industrial wise) on entrance to WWII. They can build everything and their engineering capacity is expanding by leaps and bounds. If we disregard them it will be at our own peril....