Canadian Election Primer

Various | 1/23/06 | conservative in nyc

[Torie]

Thanks for all your hard work. Great job.

As a sidebar, the Tories picked up 2 seats in 905. Greg Morrow of Democratic Space projected a 7 seat Tory pickup. In the 2 seats he was right about, the result was close, and in the 5 seats he was wrong about, the result was not close at all. That SES poll showing a fat Liberal lead at the end, and a 5% swing to the Liberals in the last two or three days, appears to have been right.

[conservative in nyc]

I noticed the Atlantic Canada table was slightly off on the seat count - I inverted the Newfoundland results in my spreadsheet. Here's a revised chart for future reference:

Atlantic Canada	Conservative	Liberal	NDP	Bloc Quebecois	Green	Other
2006 Actual Results	34.5%	39.9%	22.7%	-	3.6%	-
SES/CPAC	29%	44%	22%	-	5%	-
2006 4-Poll Average	32.8%	39.0%	24.6%	-	3.2%	-
2004 Election Results	30.0%	43.8%	22.6%	-	3.0%	-
2006 Actual Seats	9	20	3	0	0	0
democraticSPACE 2006 Seat Prediction	11	18	3	0	0	0
Election Prediction Project 2006 Seat Prediction	8	21	3	0	0	0
LISPOP Final 2006 Seat Projection	12	16	4	0	0	0
Seats after 2004 Election	7	22	3	0	0	0