Thanks, I was looking for this.
Harper needs about 15%– 20% points difference to form a majority government. According to these polls it looks like a minority government.
The Liberals have won majorities with 38% to 40% of the vote. Why should it be different for the Conservatives? Let's not forget that while the Conservatives are a true nationwide party, the Liberals doing well as they have in the face of a disastrous campaign is due to their grip on the core urban areas. That's all they represent and they no longer speak for all of Canada.
(Denny Crane: "I Don't Want To Socialize With A Pinko Liberal Democrat Commie. Say What You Like About Republicans. We Stick To Our Convictions. Even When We Know We're Dead Wrong.")