With a name like "Roach", you think he might be able to appeal to the pro-druggie libertarians. ;-)
The general in this race is going to be close. I really don't know who has the best chance to win among the Pubbies, because other than Bilbray I don't know them well enough. Bilbray is a bit of a beta type. It is a mistake to always assume the most moderate Pubbie will be the strongest candidate (as I am sure you will agree :) ), even in a somewhat moderate district, which it is now, like this one. Presentation counts.