Posted on 01/05/2006 8:45:27 PM PST by jb6
(Anatol Lieven is a senior research fellow at the New America Foundation in Washington.)
WASHINGTON With the Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute now settled, in a murky but apparently satisfactory fashion, it is time to reflect on what the affair says about the West's relations with Russia and, still more important, the West's relations with Ukraine.
The West's strategy toward Ukraine has been founded on an illusion: that Ukraine would leave Russia's orbit and "join the West," and that Russia would pay for this.
Consider the figures: Until the latest price hike, Russia was supplying Ukraine with a de facto annual energy subsidy estimated at somewhere between $3 billion and $5 billion a year. That is more than all EU aid in the 14 years since Ukrainian independence
(Excerpt) Read more at iht.com ...
ping
The West's strategy toward Ukraine has been founded on an illusion: that Ukraine would leave Russia's orbit and "join the West," and that Russia would pay for this. ==
Accually the author got it absolutely right. It is indeed the prevailing thoughts in Kiev. They wanted that someone especially Russia will pay for thier joining to EU. They think that EU will give them the donations not less even more then Poland. They talk about $80 blns which EU allergedly gave Poland for free.
I think they are too cunning then ever:)).
Bump
And still will keep $3 bln of Russian subsidy. Gas costs $240.
Ukraine's dependance on Russia is economic not political. Ukraine has had a slimy bunch of corrupt leaders since 1992, and you can hardly make a case this was all because of Russia.
No, Ukraine depends on Russia's handouts, and practically adds 'stolen gas' to the line in their accounting books expecting it's a given they'll steal more.
The EU doesn't give a crap about Ukraine, and the Ukraine should wake up and see they're telling the hand that feeds them to shove off and begging someone too rich and snobby to give them a hand out.
Economic relations are fine, but if you're "independent" and want nothing to do politically then it is economic relations and economic relations mean no subsidies, which mean dependency. So, time to play and pay like adults.
Really, so you different opinion than Gazprom. They claim that they are selling their gas for 230$ and the rest is from Central Asia. So Ukraine is actually paying so called market prices for Russian gas.
What is your opinion?
This is strange deal but if both sides claim so then perhaps they are right.
Perhaps Niyazov is a barbarian but internationally he is an isolationist not imperialist like Putin. So he isn’t the threat for the Ukrainian independence. If Russia would be a normal country then there would not be necessary to talk with Niyazov.
ohh come-on, Kremlin supports every kind of dictators in the neighborhood only to preserve Russian influence in these areas. They would to see Ukraine down in the position of Belarus, if not a part of Russia then at least slave of Russia.
Market pricing is a normal practice. Subsidizing for political reasons is not.
Such a hypocrisy, Kremlin give a damn about market prices and free market economy. You have no problems when you subsided Ukraine, Belarus and other for years for political reasons and now suddenly countries with pro-western orientation got punished. What a joke, especially that Gazprom broke the contract.
Poles as always think that they have a right to judge if Russia is normal or not.
In opposition to Russians the Poles are free people, they know it and love to use their freedoms if this is necessary. What hurt you so much that we are one of the few who are able to express our opinion in your face? You prefer most of European pussies who basically share our opinion but talk only behind your backs?
How much European handout will Poland receive in 2006? 8 bln euros.
Are you jealous?
And why do you think Poland doesn't buy Turkmenian gas since Niyazov is so perfect in comparison with Russia?
Perhaps we have enough money to avoid the deals with such kind of “partners”. I would personally prefer Russian gas but I assume that this is suicidal step...
Through the evening of 13 December the price discussed for Ukraine was $160 per 1,000 cubic meters. That evening Alexander Medvedev, GASPROM’s vice president, said that if the contract will be unsigned by 1 January, Russia will turn off supplies to the Ukraine. The next morning, 14 December, Sergey Kupriyanov, GASPROM’s spokesman, said that the situation has been changed and the new price is going to be $220-$230. It was the obvious step to kill all negotiations. Why did this happened? Because on 12 December Gerhard Schroeder, the former German’s Chancellor accepted the top position in the new concern to build the North European Pipeline and it caused a major public scandal in Germany. On 15 December the Bundestag, the German parliament, scheduled hearings on this issue. Russians attempted to bring negotiations to an end in order to demonstrate the significance of the pipeline project (by pointing to Ukraine’s gas-stealing), and justifying Schroeder’s involvement. And they succeeded: the scandal around Schroeder calmed down…
Next, Russians understood that if brought to court or even to public hearings, their accusations of Ukraine stealing gas would be lost. On 4 January, the EU was supposed to discuss the situation of gas supply in Brussels - so at about 6 AM (!) on that date the contract between GAZPROM and UKRNAFTA was signed and announced at 10 AM Moscow time, before beginning of the workday in Central Europe… And here’s how Russia tried to save face: they announced that Ukraine will buy Russian gas at $230 per 1,000 cubic meters, but will get it in reality for $95 because Russian gas will be mixed with cheaper Turkmenian gas!
They probably believe that no one could calculate… Let me share a couple of numbers with you. In 2006 Ukraine will get 40 billion cub.m from Turkmenistan and 16.5 cub.m from Russia. Turkmenia sells its gas to Ukraine at $65 per 1,000 cub.m. This means that Russia sells its gas to Ukraine for $165 to achieve the average price of $95 - this is exactly what was discussed and agreed before 14 December!!! And this is why Ukraine has signed this contract plus the transportation cost was increased from $1.09 to $1.60 for 1,000 cub.m on 100 km, so Ukraine agreed to the deal.
See rest of comment at www.kirazalan.net
Interesting article, perhaps you are right.
So what. In return you got cheaper rent for the Black Sea Fleat and a friendly nighbouring country. God knows Russia is in a short suply of those.
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