No, if RusUkrEnergo folds, what stops Ukraine from repeating the "gas war"?
Now all the hope of Ukraine left on "the father of all turkmen" (Turkmenbashi) the big "democrate" himself. HE has to save the young ukranian democracy and gave up cheap gas:))))).
No, it doesn't matter in the least if Turkmens raise their gas- RUEnergo has to sell at $95. If their business is not profitable and they fold- start the war again. It looks like Turkmenistan is the loser here- it no longer has any contact with Ukraine and would have to sell its gas to RUEnergo/Gasprom.
If you take Russian gas at $230 and Turkmeni gas at $60 together, it comes out that Ukraine would pay $95. But if you consider that the real value of Turkmeni gas was not $60 but $85-90 because of the transit, then Ukraine paying $95 results in Russian gas sold at $160. ($95 is what Ukraine pays at Ukraine-Russia border- ie. no transit fee for the Turkmeni gas.)
That's my view, take it for whatever it is. To me this appears more like compromise, not a clear cut victory. Too bad, I wanted a victory :)
No, if RusUkrEnergo folds, what stops Ukraine from repeating the "gas war"? ==
The "gas war" with whom? With RusUrkEnergo? What is it to do with Gazprom since Gazprom will not supply Ukraine with gas anymore.
If Gazprom will fail it obligations to pay for transit then Ukarine may wage new "gas war" with it.
The beuty of this situation is that Gazprom will never be responsible for delivery the gas for Ukarine for price below $230:). The obligation to supply with cheap gas turned to Turkmenia according the new contract.
No, it doesn't matter in the least if Turkmens raise their gas- RUEnergo has to sell at $95. ==
You read contract please. You will see that $95 is only for first half of 2006. Besides this period there no price obligations.
Anyway RosUkrEnergo is NOT Gazprom. It is offshore company registered in Switzerlend.
Why Ukraine would attack Gazprom if Gazprom has no obligations to her except to pay transit fee at 1.6 for 5 years? It is like to attack Tom for deeds of Peter. Completely insane:).
Of cause Ukarien may turn off Europe but who will be guilty? Not Gazprom.
I think I'm incorrect here. (that's what happens when you have to make sense of things as they come in)
Before, Turkmeni gas would cost Ukraine $90-95 (selling price of $40-50 plus transit). Now Ukraine buys at her border from RUEnergo both the Turkmeni and Russian gas for $95. What sale for $230 can there be? Russia can only be sells at $95.
Conclusion- instead of buiyng Russian gas at $50 last year Ukraine is buying at $95. (Am I wrong anywhere?)