Threat Matrix: Daily Terror Threat

Thanks for the update Velveeta.

Thanks you Mossad 1967.

That's interesting.

I didn't see this part of the Zawahri tape talked about elsewhere, came across this tonight while working on the next thread. Interesting, as we saw the same from UBL in his last tape (2005).

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http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/F667A159-57A9-4545-BA60-00895EC6A4F2.htm

Call to convert

Elsewhere in the tape - reported but not aired by Aljazeera - al-Zawahiri called on Bush to convert to Islam, telling him that if he does so he will "become a brother in the faith and God will forgive you your sins".

He warned Musharraf against cooperation with the Americans, threatening, "Your day of judgement is approaching".

Al-Zawahiri extended his condolences to Afghans and Pakistanis for those killed in US raids, and called on Muslims in Afghanistan and Pakistan to support Taliban leader Mullah Omar.

make that 2004 on the last tape. ;-)

After 9/11, bin Laden received sharp criticisms from Islamist scholars that dealt with the al-Qaeda chief's failure to satisfy several religious requirements pertinent to waging war. The critique focused on three items: (1) insufficient warning; (2) failure to offer Americans a chance to convert to Islam; and (3) inadequate religious authorization to kill so many people. Bin Laden accepted these criticisms and in mid-2002 began a series of speeches and actions to remedy the shortcomings and satisfy his Islamist critics before again attacking in the United States.

..

Parallel to the warnings, bin Laden on two occasions since 2002 asked Americans to convert to Islam as the means of terminating the war al-Qaeda is waging against the United States. "We call you to Islam," bin Laden said on both occasions, addressing himself to President Bush - as the leader of the American people - and asking him to lead his countrymen to Islam. He also offered to serve as guide and teacher for the American people, urging them to "follow the right path" to Islam. "I am an honest adviser to you." bin Laden concluded, "I urge you to seek the joy of life and the after life.... I urge you to become Muslims...." (Al-Jazeera 6 Oct 02; Waaqiah.com, 26 Oct 02)

http://www.jamestown.org/news_details.php?news_id=96

OPINION: Yep, sounds like the final call, huh?

http://www.jamestown.org/news_details.php?news_id=158

"Internet Mujahideen Analyze the Latest Bin Laden Audio Tape"
01/25/2006 - By Stephen Ulph (from Terrorism Focus, January 25)

ARTICLE SNIPPET: "Both jihadi and Western analysts lay emphasis on the importance of the audio recording for morale boosting purposes. From postings such as the above, however, an important significance of the "four minutes that shook the world" audiotape is not only that bin Laden is alive, but also that the religiously defined strategy toward dominion remains intact. "The secret of the tape," bin Mahmud insists, is as a confirmation of God's words on infidels spending their wealth to impede the jihad: "They will spend it, then it will become an anguish for them, then they will be conquered." (Qur'an VIII, 36). The "anguish," he explains, is that the millions spent by the enemy have been overturned by a "cheaply made, technologically rough tape." In other words, it is an epoch-making demonstration of triumphant asymmetric warfare."

Posted By: Jamestown

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1568472/posts

"Two Killed In Postal Facility Shooting In Goleta (CA)"
CBS 2 / KCAL 9 ^ | 1/30/2006 | Associated Press

Posted on 01/30/2006 10:09:58 PM PST by JennysCool

GOLETA, Calif. (AP)

The pattern Brown observed is that each Zawahiri video appears to be part of a pair, with the second video followed by a significant attack within 30 days, outside of the major combat zones of Iraq and Afghanistan.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1541389/posts?page=2572#2572

thanks

Release of al-Qaida tapes seen as tip on timing of future attacks

WASHINGTON – There is a high likelihood of a major terrorist attack next Sunday, say international terror analysts and intelligence sources.

The warning is made on the basis of several factors, according to Joseph Farah's G2 Bulletin:

* There is increased "chatter" in the terrorist world about a major new attack in the West – a sign often leading to an impending strike;

* The date Feb. 5 has been specifically referenced in some of this chatter;

* The date is significant to Osama bin Laden;

* Much of the western world will be watching television that day;

* The release of al-Qaida videotapes seems to provide clues about the dates of future attacks and, in this scenario, Feb. 5 becomes the most likely near-term terror strike date.

Terror attacks seem to follow the release of al-Qaida videos by about 30 days. Some intelligence analysts are noting the significance of the release of videos recently by both Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri.

Zawahiri released his last video Jan. 6, making Feb. 5 the most likely target date, according to past attacks. Some analysts suggest the release of communiqués by both al-Zawahiri and bin Laden might be the precursor to a mega-attack – something even rivaling Sept. 11 in scope and devastation.

But there does seem to be an unmistakable pattern involved in the release of videos and al-Qaida attacks.

Zawahiri, bin Laden's right-hand man, who narrowly escaped death in the Pakistani missile attack weeks ago, seems to release videos in pairs. After the release of the second video, within 30 days a major event occurs.

For instance:

# release dates of Sept. 9 and Nov. 9, 2004, were the first set of videos, followed by the Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, bombings Dec. 6.

# release dates of Feb. 20 and June 26, 2005, were followed by the July 7, 2005, London bombings.

# release dates of Aug. 4 and Sept. 1, 2005, were followed by the Bali bombings Oct. 1, 2005.

The next set started Oct. 23, 2005, and on Jan. 6, the second video followed.

That, suggests some analysts, makes Feb. 5 a likely target date. Interestingly, it is also a significant date to bin Laden. Feb. 5, 1989, was the day the last Soviet troops withdrew from Kabul, Afghanistan, signaling their defeat at the hand of the mujahedeen. Kabul was the capital of Osama's adopted country and was a major win for him and Islam. Significantly, perhaps, in bin Laden's audio release he referenced the U.S. withdrawing from Iraq and Afghanistan.

It also happens to be Super Bowl Sunday, when the eyes of the entire world will be watching America.

Authorities in Detroit, where the Super Bowl will be played, are certainly taking the threat of terrorism seriously. According to the FBI and Detroit police, the game will be the focal point of one of the largest security operations in U.S. history, guarding against any threats to Super Bowl XL and aided by more than 50 federal, state and local law enforcement agencies.

Including private security guards, there will be about 10,000 security personnel on duty, more than for any other one-day event in U.S. history. Radiation detectors will be stationed near the stadium. SWAT teams, bomb removal and other specialized law enforcement officials will be on hand.

Despite the recent taped messages, authorities say there are "no credible threats against the Super Bowl."

http://worldnetdaily.com/news/article.asp?ARTICLE_ID=48559

OPINIONI agree with this statement in the article: "Release of al-Qaida tapes seen as tip on timing of future attacks"

Yes, I do as well.

I am cautious about putting a lot of credence into the idea of coming up with a date out of thin air though, especially a date with western significance. The Super Bowl has been a suspected target every yr since 9/11.

I do believe the coming 1-10 days should be viewed as a higher threat period. Obvious targets would be the State of the Union, and Super Bowl. Or something elsewhere during either event. After those 10 days, who knows.. if the patterns repeat themselves, somewhere in the world will still see a large attack in the next month or two.

These tapes were quite a significant finish to the Islamic calender year, 1427 begins today.

http://www.mb.com.ph/MAIN2006013155153.html

Right.
I don't predict dates either.

ON THE NET...

JAMESTOWN.org - Terrorism Monitor: "THE TERRORIST THREAT TO THE TURIN OLYMPIC GAMES" by Giuseppe Anzera (January 26, 2006) (Read More...)

TRAVEL.STATE.gov: "Winter Olympics 2006 Fact Sheet" (Read More...)

OFF TOPIC and ON THE NET...

http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=us&q=%22Shroud+of+Turin%22&btnG=Search+News

http://go.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=technologyNews&storyID=11024713&src=eDialog/GetContent

"Turin builds virtual fortress for Games"
Mon Jan 30, 2006 02:43 PM ET

ARTICLE SNIPPET: "MILAN (Reuters) - Olympic organizers have tightened the screws on data processing security to prevent identity fraud and tampering with scores and times, a project director at Atos Origin, which manages the IT system for the Games, told Reuters.

Patrick Adiba, head of the Olympic Games project at Atos, said there had been some five million security alerts on the secure network for the Summer Games in Athens.

Only about 20 of these were critical -- people trying to access the network without authorization.

"The main innovation is that we have managed to have a much more effective filter system than in Athens," he said.

"We are also implementing a new system of identity management, so when people want to log in you can check if they have the right to do so."

Italy is protecting the Games with an army of snipers, policemen and firemen, and has been praised for its security efforts in the face of militant Islamist threats and local political protest groups.

It also receives information from intelligence agencies around the world about Olympic risks.

As with intelligence reports, the challenge is to find the real threats in a fog of data."

Note: The following post is a quote:
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http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1568485/posts

Nordic citizens threatened in the Gaza Strip
The Norway Post ^ | 30.01.2006 08:15 | Rolleiv Solholm

Posted on 01/30/2006 11:24:58 PM PST by restornu

The Palestinian group Holy War has asked Danes, Norwegians and Swedes to leave the Gaza Strip immediatley. The Nordic citizens have been asked to leave the area within 48 hours. On Monday, armed men burned the Norwegian flag outside the EU Headquarters in Gaza.

The background for the reaction is that the Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten last year published a series of charicatures of the Profet Muhammed. A facsimile of the drawings was later published by a Norwegian Christian magagzine. Monday's demonstrators burned Norwegian and Danish flags and read a declaration demanding an official apology.

According to Islam, it is forbidden to make any image of the Prophet, and the charicatures have led to strong reactions from Muslim nations and from Muslims living in Denmark.

The Norwegian People's Aid has two aid workers stationed in Gaza, and the Norwegian Department of Foreign Affairs has now coordinated travel arrangements for their immediate departure from the Gaza Strip.

(NRK)

I'm going to put the new thread up in a few minutes.

Ok, I'll be here.