Thanks for the info. I'm very surprised it is so high. I work on field development exploration is finished so I am only exposed to the successful wells.
Individual wells are not the same as a geological area. I will give you million to one odds there is oil to be produced out of ANWR 1002 area, the coastal plain. The oil seeping out of the ground is a likely indication of the presence of oil.
...wildcat success rate...is the percentage of wildcat wells drilled that successfully find new oil fields, regardless of field size. The average success rate for the U.S. from 1977 to 1996 is estimated at 18%... In other words, it is expected that, on average, for every five wildcat wells drilled between 1977 and 1996, one will discover a new oil field.
Because...prospects lie thousands of feet below the earth's surface, uncertainty and trial-and-error pervade the exploration process. It is a painstaking and hugely expensive enterprise, with low success rates. Historically, new field wildcat exploration has succeeded at a rate of one productive well for every five to 10 wells drilled....3-D seismic and 4-D time-lapse visualization, remote sensing, and other exploration technology allow explorationists to target higher-quality prospects and to improve success rates by as much as 50 percent or more.
Baseed on the above Blue Ridge Group statement, through use of the latest 3D & 4D technology, the 50% improvement advertised would imply that at least one out of every 5, to as many as 1 out of 2.5 wells sunk will strike oil (wildcat success).