You are, as so often, right on the practical matters.
The Southland, and esp. LA County will settle the doubtful issues, and it just might be pro-73. An outside chance, and dependent utterly on the Latino Catholic voter.
Cheers,
Richard F.
At this point, I would say that all initiatives go down. LA hasn't reported nor have any significant number of precincts in Alameda county reported. They will go heavily anti-75. The only hope is that Orange County is only partly in. Don't think that will be enough.
The continuing downward slide of a once great state continues. Getting rid of Gray Davis has turned out to be the poison pill for Republicans I predicted. California is ungovernable. Nothing about that will change for a generation. Our job now is to prevent the cancer from spreading.
Just on pratical matters? :) The Hispanic effect is huge on 73. The pundits will notice it in about a week. If LA County Hipanics vote like Hispanics elsewhere in SoCal, LA will not follow the state pattern. Meanwhile, conservative Anglos in rural areas are lukewarm. Politics is so interesting. The union dues one will be tight, but I have a bad feeling that LA county will tank it, with Orange and San Diego unable to staunch the tide.