Maybe.
But I'm noticing between the OH amendments, TEXAS Marriage amendment, Kaine winning on a conservative campaign that the trend seems to favor conservative positions. No, Kaine isn't a conservative, but he certainly benefited from perception. Cali may pull out a few surprises yet if the trend extends there. The only oddball so far is N.J., but Forrester didn't run as a conservative. He had some conservative positions, but ran as Dem lite. So they chose the real thing.
With sufficient Schwartzeneggerische success in Cali, your analysis will be correct. I'm pessimistic.
Schundler-a true conservative-lost by an even wider margin.