France caving to Islam was always the most likely possibility in my mind. Spain caved and they actually had a dog in the Iraq war. France has less far to go.
No guarantees, and I don't see Villepin's comments as capitulation, yet, but odds are odds.
Look at it this way.
If France turns, there's nothing to stop us from invoking the "not with us, therefore..." clause.
Key question 1. What about the rest of Europe?
2. How quick can Al Qaeda call off the dogs if and when the French cave? Operational intel available there.
3. Does AQ "occupy" their new land, or are they content denying us the ally, vis-a-vis Spain? We don't know the answer to this one yet, but Ayman did, before he ever gave the go order.
and finally:
4. Does Turkey get into the EU now?
and
5. Do Muslim girls get to wear headscarves to school?
Chirac and de Villepin are cowards but at least their tastefully dressed cowards.