This is peripheral to the Miers thread (and certainly a lot will be written about this race as it develops), but I don't see Kweisi getting enough support in the Maryland primary. Moderate black Dems will realize that to win, the Dem candidate needs to get a lot of the white vote, and Kweisi won't get that. So Cardin is the likeliest Senate candidate. He's anti-charismatic, so I suggested in another (short) thread that he'll ally himself with a charismatic gubernatorial candidate, who he probably hopes will be O'Malley. Expect a lot of joint appearances in the campaign and a general "Take Back/Protect our State" theme. It'll be easier for Cardin to run against the Ehrlich administration than Steele directly, because he risks being undermined by Steele's charisma and somewhat of a reverse black backlash if he questions Steele's qualifications. And I hate to say it, but I think there are Eastern Shore and western MD white GOP members that will find it a little difficult to vote for Steele directly (being on the Ehrlich ticket was one thing, but by himself...)
There are so many potential triangulations possible in this race that its going to be fascinating (and frustrating).
I think Mfume is probably going to lose, short of some spectacular revelation being disclosed that impacts Cardin's chances negatively.
I don't know if Steele's charisma-or impeccable conservative credentials-will be enough to compete with the still overwhelming advantage Democrats have in that state.
While I think race might play a (marginal) role in that election, I'm not so sure that it will be dispositive.
I have the same feeling with regard to Blackwell in Ohio-probably my favorite politician in the country-who is going to be burdened by the baggage of Bob Tax, and his merry band of whiny RINOs, in spite of his attempts to chart a different course for the Ohio Republican Party.