AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-GMZ656-657-676-231030- HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED WATCH/WARNING SECTION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 1200 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005 ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA... ...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS: COLLIER...GLADES...HENDRY...PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE. ...NEW INFORMATION... UPDATED WARNINGS...STORM INFORMATION...AND LOCAL IMPACT SECTIONS. ...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN INLAND HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT FOR PALM BEACH...BROWARD...MIAMI DADE...GLADES...HENDRY...COLLIER...AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. ...STORM INFORMATION... AT 11 PM EDT...HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NAPLES. WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ALL LOCAL IMPACTS DEPICTED BELOW IN THIS STATEMENT ARE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...TIMING..AND INTENSITY IN WILMA'S FORECAST. ANY DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST COULD ALTER THE DEPICTED LOCAL IMPACTS. THEREFORE...RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY TUNED AS THIS STATEMENT IS UPDATED EVERY 3 TO 6 HOURS. ...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HURRICANE WILMA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING AND ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA PARTICULARLY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE INTENSITY...TIMING...AND EXACT TRACK OF WILMA AS IT APPROACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN THIS CASE. RESIDENTS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA ARE ADVISED TO PUT THEIR PREPAREDNESS PLANS INTO PLACE NOT LATER THAN EARLY ON SUNDAY. PLEASE STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE LOCAL SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. IN COLLIER COUNTY...A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SOUTH AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 41 INCLUDING MARCO ISLAND...EVERGLADES CITY...AND A LARGE PART OF NAPLES. THIS MANDATORY EVACUATION SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 8 AM EDT SUNDAY. A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE REST OF COLLIER COUNTY. IN HENDRY COUNTY...A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS AND RESIDENTS OF LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS RECOMMENDED. SHELTERS WILL BE OPEN AT 3 PM SUNDAY. IN GLADES COUNTY...SHELTERS WILL BE OPENING SUNDAY EVENING. A DECISION ON THE EXTENT OF THE EVACUATIONS WILL BE MADE ON SUNDAY. IN BROWARD COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATION OF MOBILE HOME RESIDENTS WILL BEGIN AT NOON SUNDAY. SIX SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT NOON SUNDAY ALONG WITH A PET-FRIENDLY SHELTER. IN PALM BEACH COUNTY...GENERAL EVACUATION OF RESIDENTS IN SUBSTANDARD HOUSING...LOW LYING AREAS...MOBILE HOMES...AND RECREATIONAL VEHICLES WILL COMMENCE AT 1 PM EDT SUNDAY. SPECIAL NEEDS SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 10 AM EDT SUNDAY. REGULAR SHELTERS WILL OPEN AT 1 PM EDT SUNDAY. IN MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY...EVERGLADES NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED AND PRELIMINARY EVACUATION HAS ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED AT FLAMINGO. IN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...BISCAYNE NATIONAL PARK IS CLOSED. DECISIONS ON EVACUATION RECOMMENDATIONS AND SHELTERS WILL BE MADE EARLY SUNDAY. ...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS... AT THIS STAGE...IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE SURGE IMPACT WILL BE AS IT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK...SIZE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...A POTENTIAL STORM TIDE OF 9 TO 12 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY COASTS...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTH THROUGH FLAMINGO...ASSUMING THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL OR APPROACHES THE COAST AS A CATEGORY 2 EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHORTLY AFTER THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH IS EXPECTED AROUND 4 TO 5 AM MONDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN FLOODING OF AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF TAMIAMI TRAIL. OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE...A STORM SURGE OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE CURRENT LAKE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE. ON THE EAST COAST...STORM TIDE OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE TIDE LEVEL IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF BISCAYNE BAY IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MOVES AS FORECAST. ...WIND IMPACTS... BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS MAY START AFFECTING THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST DURING THE EARLY PRE-DAWN MONDAY MORNING HOURS...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AND EASTERN SECTIONS AROUND AND SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE LATE MORNING MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM WINDS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF UNANCHORED. SOME BUILDING DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND DOORS IS ALSO POSSIBLE. LARGE TREES MAY BE UPROOTED WHICH WOULD LIKELY CAUSE DOWNED POWER LINES...RESULTING IN EXTENDED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SIZE OF THE STORM...THERE IS A BETTER THAN 80 PERCENT CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH...THROUGH MONDAY. THE CHANCE THAT MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH IS FROM 50 TO 65 PERCENT. ...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS... OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING EARLY SUNDAY EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AS HIGH AS 16 FEET OFFSHORE...AND WINDS POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE FORCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ROUGH ON SUNDAY...BECOMING VERY ROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS LIKELY AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE LAKE AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD START SUBSIDING LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SUBSIDING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SPREADING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY OFF THE PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING AROUND MONDAY MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE BY NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. MARINERS SHOULD START MAKING PLANS TO PROTECT MARINE CRAFT ON ALL COASTS ALLOWING PLENTY OF EXTRA LINE FOR THE EXPECTED STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ...LOCAL FLOOD IMPACTS... STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. A FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY. MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON WHAT THE FLOOD IMPACT WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE PROVIDED IN FURTHER UPDATES. ...LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS... TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13 TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THIS THREAT INCREASING LATER SUNDAY...AND COULD BE SIGNIFICANT AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE STATE AND RAIN BANDS BEGIN IMPACTING THE LOCAL AREA. ...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING. $$ PS
Floater looks like the dry air is affecting it. Would be par for the course this year if it dwindled down to Charley size and intensified.