[jeffers]

That's a tough call, because on the current track, Marco is right near the left edge of max surge, where it starts falling off rapidly. Same spot in Katrina saw 15 feet, while elsewhere saw 30+.

With forecasts still calling for 17 foot on the upper end, Marco could see half that as a minimum. This slight left shift we're seeing right now could put that up to 13 to 15 easily.

Here's what Marco Island will look like with a five foot surge:

http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y138/jeffers_mz/Wilma/marcoplus5.jpg

[laz]

With forecasts still calling for 17 foot on the upper end

I heard on ABC Miami a few minutes ago that they're predicting up to 18 feet.

[steveegg]

This is more like reality (sigh) -

076 
URNT12 KNHC 240859
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/08:39:50Z
B. 25 deg 29 min N
  082 deg 19 min W
C. 700 mb 2684 m
D. NA  kt
E.     deg     nm
F. 208 deg 123 kt
G. 135 deg 040 nm
H.         953 mb
I.   9 C/ 3032 m
J.  14 C/ 3042 m
K.  13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C60
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 3  nm
P. AF302 2524A WILMA        OB 10
MAX FL WIND 123 KT SE QUAD 08:28:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 15 C, 134 / 30NM

Movement from the first AF302 fix at 3:47 - 75 degrees at 20 mph. Movement from the last AF305 fix at 2:59 - 53 degrees at 24 mph.

[Major_Risktaker]

This slight left shift we're seeing right now could put that up to 13 to 15 easily.

Yikes! All the homes will be underwater.

[jslade]

Here's what Marco Island will look like with a five foot surge:

Yikes! Where'd Marco Island go. Hope that FReeper's parents got the hell out of there.