Hurricane Wilma Live Thread, Part III (TS Alpha gets honorable mention too)

NHC - NOAA ^ | 22 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.

In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.

The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Streaming Video:

WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm

Additional Resources:

Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24

[tiredoflaundry]

I still don't understand why anyone would short themselves on the Little Debbies.

LOL! My husband was in NY, last week and brought back 2 boxes of Drake's Funny Bones. I let the family have one box, the other is being kept in an undisclosed location for my own personal use!

[laz]

Hehehe. I see that got your dander up too. He's already been shown to be wrong by Max Mayfield, within minutes of posting that assertion. Mayfield would never tell someone, "Sorry, but I consider that to be a minor storm", even if it WAS a minor storm. He has class. And he would choose to instruct, not dismiss.

[Strategerist]

If this Hunble guy is a meteorologist, then I'm Ann Coulter; I remember him from some cane threads a few months ago...laughable. Total poseur.

[laz]

Go get 'im, dirtboy! :)

[Guenevere]

I took a nice long nap....(getting ready for our hurricane)

...and woke up, and ....

..you're here.

We...on this thread have had days and days of watching, plotting, discussing this storm....and we've managed to do it with humor, goodwill, and respect for other's opinion.

Then you came....

..You may very well be what you say you are....

..but I find your 'attitude' condescending.....

..These are PEOPLE you're talking to....folks with feelings....and they have invested time and energy and interest in these weather patterns, and

...have been enlightening all of us along the way.

We appreciate their imput because they're eager to be accurate, and first to tell us when they're not sure.

If you want to play..........RESPECT THE RULES!

[Hunble]

It no longer matters my Freeper friend. I have officially stated my predictions about this hurricane and stand by it.

In two days, we will compare notes.....

Unlike a TV meteorologist that will give you a 70% or 30% chance of rain (minimizing his error rating mathematically), I put my reputation on the line when I make my official predictions.

Talk to you in two days....

[HoHoeHeaux]

Max Mayfield does have class, doesn't he? The is the man as far as weather goes, for me.

[Strategerist]

Even I think Hunble is condescending and I think I hold the FR record for being accused of being condescending, so that says something :-)

The main point about him is the guy is flat out not who he says he is; I've been around various weather boards and chat rooms since 1996; I'm not a meteorologist but I know several real ones.

I've seen a wide variety of poseurs at times with a rather elaborate net of lies and even websites; saw one guy claim he'd worked for NHC and also that he had his own computer model (both false.)

This guy reminds me of all the poseurs.

[MIsunshine]

Thanks so much NautiNurse for your hurricane threads and the very useful links.

To all that gave me advice and Collier County links for my Dad in Naples. He didn't leave the area, but as of today he's on the 3rd floor of a pet friendly hotel outside of the storm surge zone for up to a cat 3 hurricane. He may still have a memorable 1st hurricane experience, but I'm so relieved he's out of his coastal one-story home. I feel so helpless here in MI.

Thanks again everyone.

Prayers for all in the storm path and for everone who has loved ones in the storm path.

[NautiNurse]

Tornado warning *multiple counties*...Hardee, Hillsborough, Manatee, and I forget the rest...weather alert radio...

[jeffers]

Discussion 34 puts landfall 1.5 miles south of the southern tip of Marco Island at 0839 Monday. That time will probably be late, as they show the storm still accelerating at that point and I'm using average speed between data points instead.

Speaking of average speed, between 0400 and 1600 Monday, they show her moving 310 miles, for an average forward vel9ocity of 25.8 mph.

[steveegg]

Heads up - text of tornado warning NN is speaking of -

LC049-057-081-105-232215-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0023.051023T2148Z-051023T2215Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
548 PM EDT SUN OCT 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN HARDEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
SOUTHEASTERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY IN FLORIDA.
NORTHEASTERN MANATEE COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 548 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO OVER NORTHWESTERN HARDEE COUNTY...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
FORT GREEN BY 550 PM EDT.
FORT LONESOME BY 615 PM EDT.

AT 545 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ALSO REPORTED SEVERAL
PUBLIC SITINGS OF A TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST SOUTHWEST OF ZOLFO
SPRINGS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM! MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING...AWAY FROM WINDOWS. COVER YOUR HEAD AND
BODY WITH PILLOWS OR BLANKETS.


&&

LAT...LON 2749 8200 2762 8186 2787 8212 2768 8223

[U S Army EOD]

Send photo, I might be willing to cut you a doggie door.

[SamAdams76]

It seems to be that if somebody is claiming to be a meteorologist, it should be easy enough to check out by running his name through a quick Google search. Most real meterologists have their names plastered all over the Internet from their various newsgroup postings, forecasts, etc. Of course, that necessitates the person giving his real name. Unless that happens, people will have cause for doubt.

[laz]

Sure, this is a bad storm and there will be damage. However, compared to other hurricanes that have hit Florida in the last two years, the damage will be rather minor.

This reeks of saving face and CYA. An attempt to qualify his original, dismissive assertion, now that dirtboy's nailed him too.

Oh, I see -- NOW it's a bad storm? I thought it was a minor one. A minor, bad storm. Or is that a bad, minor storm? A bad, minor, weakening storm. Oh, I get it! It's the damage that will be rather minor, not the storm itself. The storm itself is bad, the damage minor. Why would I think he implied the STORM was rather minor? Doh! Probably because that's exactly what he said to begin with.

Thanks. With all the tension and anticipation waiting for Wilma to arrive, I needed this little bit of humor.

[mrs tiggywinkle]

**I put my reputation on the line when I make my official predictions. **

Your reputation (FR or otherwise) means squat when we only know you by 'Hunble'.

You came across as heartless towards those who live in the hurricane path, and those who have loved ones in the path. My father lives in Florida.

[onyx]

Onyx... a long time FReeper (Hunble) ping. (I think he is just a little rough around the edges.)





LOL! Me too. Just a little.

[jeffers]

Good deal.

Sorry if I laid it on a little thick, I wanted him off that island. It's too low and old guys shouldn't oughtta be swimming around in Cat-2 storms.

Young guys either.

[NautiNurse]

I think I hold the FR record for being accused of being condescending

LOL! :o)

[laz]

If this Hunble guy is a meteorologist, then I'm Ann Coulter; I remember him from some cane threads a few months ago...laughable. Total poseur.

Thank you very much for that, Strategerist. His unmasking is complete. I knew it in my gut.