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Locked on 10/24/2005 2:24:18 AM PDT by Jim Robinson, reason:
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Posted on 10/22/2005 1:25:10 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma slowly drifts toward the Southeast Gulf of Mexico after relentlessly pounding Cozumel and Cancun for more than 24 hours. Early reports indicate extensive wind and flood damage to Mexico's resort-studded Mayan Riviera. Mexican officials said about 20,000 tourists were at shelters and hotels on the mainland south of Cancun and an estimated 10,000-12,000 were in Cancun itself. About 50 hotels were evacuated.
In preparation for Hurricane Wilma's anticipated Florida landfall, a Hurricane Watch and mandatory evacuation have been issued for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay. Mandatory evacuations for Marco Island and much of Naples are in effect, as well as high surf advisories and high risk of rip currents along Florida's panhandle and Big Bend coasts. Bus services are available for Monroe Co. and other counties for residents who do not have transportation. Additional storm watches for the Florida peninsula are expected later today.
The 2005 hurricane season altered the record books again today with the formation of Tropical Storm Alpha south of Hispanola. Preliminary forecasts indicate TS Alpha will not affect the U.S. mainland.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Florida Department of Emergency Management
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
Streaming Video:
WBBH-TV/WZVN-TV Ft. Myers (WMP): http://waterbc.wm.llnwd.net/waterbc_netvideo
WESH-TV/DT Orlando/Daytona Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24028.ram
WFTV-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:20361.ram
WKMG-TV/DT Orlando (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:23942.ram
WPBF-TV/DT West Palm Beach (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/7883/live/reflector:24035.ram
WSVN-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://216.242.118.140/windowsmedia/asx/wsvn_broadband.asx
WTVJ-TV/DT Miami: http://nbc6.feedroom.com/iframeset.jsp?ord=381015
WPLG-TV/DT Miami (RP): http://mfile.akamai.com/8660/live/reflector:23941.ram
WFOR-TV/DT Miami (WMP): http://wfor.dayport.com/viewer/content/special.php?Art_ID=612&Format_ID=2&BitRate_ID=8&Contract_ID=2&Obj_ID={obj_id}
WTSP-TV/DT St. Petersburg/Tampa (WMP): mms://wmbcast.gannett.speedera.net/wmbcast.gannett/wmbcast_gannett_sep252004_1915_64623
Hurricane City (Real Player) - http://hurricanecity.com/live.ram
ABCNews Now (Real Player) - http://reallive.stream.aol.com/ramgen/redundant/abc/now_hi.rm
Additional Resources:
Pet Friendly Florida Shelter Info
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
CrownWeather.com
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Previous Threads:
Hurricane Wilma Part II
Hurricane Wilma Live Thread
Tropical Storm Wilma
Tropical Depression #24
What about Barney Rubble??
Thunder and lightning here now..wind just picked up a bit after hours of dead air.
11PM local news has their "titan" (many models rolled into one) coming in a little more north than others- in just south of Tampa, out near Titusville (Cape Canaveral area). Not my favorite choice as that brings it right over my house.
Thanks - local 11PM news just gave us the wink wink, suggesting we make a last sweep of the property for loose objects.
We were there in August, went to Tulum. The vegetation was really torn up then from Emily. I can't imagine how awful it looks now...
How close to the projected path are you at this moment?
Yup, could be. I hope to make my next trip to Skara Brae in Scotland. But, it's all a maybe at this point.
The forecast track shifted a little bit north...now within a very short distance to the current hurricane warning area.
It is pouring here (Highlands Co.South Central FL)and thundering big time. Satellite Dish knocked out for around 15 mins so far, it began gyrating during the local weather forecast.
Calling it a night. Stay safe everyone!
Arrgghh!!
But if it's just a Cat 1 or weak 2, that shouldn't be too bad. Could be worse.
The worst part is the waiting. This thing was supposed to be here by now. I think everyone here is evacuated or battened down.
Tulum is nice there on the coast...it will survive. If you go back, take a look a Coba...It's not been excavated and there's a (cheap) Club Med there. (or, used to be anyway.)
the center of Wilma has moved off of the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Earlier reports from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft showed the central pressure was 959 mb...with maximum 700 mb flight-level winds of 93 kt 30-35 N mi from the center. The plane also reported the remains of an inner eyewall...and an outer eyewall with a diameter varying between 60-80 N mi. Since the center left the coast... satellite imagery shows some cooling of the cloud tops in both the inner and outer eyewalls...although there has not yet been enough increase in organization to justify increasing the winds. Thus...the initial intensity remains 85 kt.
The initial motion is 010/3. Water vapor imagery and rawinsonde data show that the strong deep-layer trough is developing over the eastern United States as forecast by the large-scale models. This trough should turn Wilma to the northeast during the next 12-24 hr...with significant acceleration. While the models agree on the general track of Wilma...there remains some spread as to where in Florida the center will make landfall. The 18z GFS is well to the left...calling for a landfall near Charlotte Harbor...while the 12z ECMWF is well to the right...calling for the center to cross the Florida Keys. The new forecast track is nudged just a little to the right of the previous track...bringing the center to the southwest Florida coast in about 36 hr. The track is close to the 18z GFDL...the model consensus...and the FSU superensemble. Wilma should move rapidly northeast across Florida into the Atlantic... and eventually turn more eastward at high latitude after 96 hr.
The intensity forecast remains somewhat problematic. Wilma is currently trying to finish an eyewall replacement cycle that began almost 48 hr ago. The large size of the outer eyewall argues against rapid strengthening...even though the eye will be crossing The Loop current. After 24 hr...the vertical shear is forecast to increase significantly...and reports from the NOAA g4 jet show that deep-layer dry air is lurking just west of Wilma and could be entrained into the storm near this time. On the other hand...the GFDL continues to call for strengthening...bringing the storm to 95 kt near landfall in Florida. The intensity forecast will be a blend of the GFDL and the forecast shear...gradually strengthening Wilma to 100 kt in 24 hr and then weakening a little before landfall. Wilma should make landfall in Florida as a category two hurricane...although there is some chance it could hit as a category three. After crossing Florida...Wilma should quickly weaken due to shear and extratropical transition.
Based on the track forecast and the large area of tropical storm force winds associated with Wilma...new warning and watches have been issued for the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 23/0300z 21.8n 86.9w 85 kt 12hr VT 23/1200z 22.5n 86.3w 90 kt 24hr VT 24/0000z 24.0n 84.6w 100 kt 36hr VT 24/1200z 26.3n 81.5w 90 kt...inland 48hr VT 25/0000z 30.5n 77.0w 75 kt...over water 72hr VT 26/0000z 41.0n 66.0w 55 kt...extratropical 96hr VT 27/0000z 46.0n 55.0w 55 kt...extratropical 120hr VT 28/0000z 46.0n 42.0w 55 kt...extratropical
Channel 10 (ABC) here in Miami has upgraded intensity at landfall to Cat 2. That means it will feel like Cat 3 south of the eye.
Have ever met Homer Hickan, the guy that made the movie, "October Sky"? He is an avid diver. His big thing was diving on shipwrecks to include sunken German submarines.
"They are wasting no time. Brevard County has issued a mandatory evac of mobile and manufactured homes issued effecgtive 10AM Sunday, they do NOT think they will evac the barrier island but that could change. I believe the worry is about tornadoes in the outer bands as the fast moving storm approaches."
Well I certainly wish you the best. I remember the year we came back and the cabins my family had rented every summer for 30 years were completely gone.
Good attitude! Thank you.
In fact the party was fun. Some of the costumes were too racy to describe on a family forum, if that's what this is. Best was an attractive latin lady dressed as a channel 7 weather babe, but with a bloody stick through the side of her head. She looked the part, but did a great job of making fun of the weather ladies.
Better to police the yard now than wait until morning when it may be more difficult.
Nope, never met Homer. I did do a little diving off the coast of Melbourne back in the early-mid '70's, for fish and lobster.
The devil is in the details. Having it hit towards Ft. Myers/Charlotte could actually be worse for us. We'd be on the right side it.
The intensity is the other big question.
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