I know you didn't say York. But that's who this is. It's York. If you have reason to believe he's not being honest, i think you should back it up, rather than just posting innuendo. He's not prognosticating here. He's reporting. His abilities as a forecaster have nothing to do with this. As to your prediction, who knows? I think if she does get confirmed, it'll be because she gets more Democrat votes than Roberts got, but I still think there is a strong possibility she is a train wreck that will not make it out of committee. if she does make it out of committee, I think she gets more Dem votes than Roberts.
The only way Miers doesn't make it out of committee is if she withdraws her name, because under Senate rules a Supreme Court nominee moves to the full Senate even if the Judiciary Committee votes against recommending her. In other words, the Judiciary Committee is not permitted to vote not to forward the nomination.