[Strategerist]

It could be a hiccup; none of the 12Z models depict this except the GFDL; the 18Z BAMD (based on the 12Z GFS) depicts it as well, but both the BAMD and GFDL are based on the GFS, but the 12Z GFS does not depict this scenario.

[CFC__VRWC]

Clearly the 12Z GFS fed these other models some data they don't like - the outputs suggest trash runs (I don't have any experience with meterological models, but I do have a fair amount of experience with surface hydro models and can recognize a junk run when I see it).

I wonder if the trough is swooping in faster than expected, and the models aren't sure how to handle it and are "thinking" it may block Wilma's entrance into the GOM?

[steveegg]

Meanwhile, the UKMET has come off the Yucatan Peninsula and onto the track previously predicted by the GFDL and essentially in line with the current official track (the previous UKMET run ran Wilma for a Yucatan vacation then into the northwest corner of the Everglades), the oft-confused NHC90 is off the map, and the left-leaning LBAR shifts to the north of Tampa/St. Pete (NN won't like that one one bit).