[mjwise]

Not the original poster, but a lot of Ophelia's uncertainty occurred because the steering currents guiding the system were quite weak, and that is the case for Wilma too (right now, at least). By the time it reaches the western tip of Cuba, or thereabouts, Wilma will likely get pulled into a much stronger steering mechanism thanks to the large cold front that will be sweeping across the lower 48.

[nwctwx]

954mb now... good strengthening

---

000
URNT12 KNHC 182328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/23:09:50Z
B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1037 m
D. 45 kt
E. 178 deg 049 nm
F. 257 deg 080 kt
G. 167 deg 007 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 18 C/ 1518 m
J. 22 C/ 1524 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0524A WILMA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 101 KT N QUAD 23:12:10
VERY TIGHT WIND CENTER

[Capt. Tom]

If you look at the top graphic in post # 162 it looks like the wind flow around the hurricane will not reduce the winds in the storm, as those winds will be traveling in the same direction as the storm winds on both sides of the storm.

That graphic is a snapshot in time, and how fast those other systems are moving is what the forecasters have to take into account.

Whatever is happening they all seem to be on the same page now,according to the lower graphic in post # 162. - Tom