Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Sax]

Yeah it was fun, gotta fight that cabin fever when you're 'hunkering down' and amuse the kids too. For Frances last year, I was on a second floor porch flying a Wal-Mart bag tied to a big spool of string. Must've had it out 75 yards before it broke free.

[CFC__VRWC]

The only "model" which isn't very tightly around the track consesus is "XTRP" which isn't a model, so he must amusingly be yet another fan of extrapolated motion.

Oh well, I gave him a chance to put up or shut up - I'm so shocked he didn't take the bait </s>.

11:00 AM update is out - no change in pressure (882 mb) or max winds (175 mph). Updated track seems to bring it ashore at the same location, but with a more northerly component to the track across the peninsula. I can only hope it's topped out, but this thing has done nothing but exceed everyone's expectations since it was born.

[jslade]

Please check in and let us know what you decide to do for the storm.

Rode out Charley, Frances, and Jeanne last year with no damage (just tree limbs down). Lost power for 18 hrs., 6 days, and 16 hrs. repectively. Will ride this one out. Steel roof made a believer out of me!

[markman46]

Wilma is looking for Fred at the WaterBufflow Lodge meeting but she doesn't know which one.

[rodguy911]

Thanks but I will be in Minnesota on a prior engagement.
While this thing is hard to predict, one usually reliable prediction I heard was that the Storm will be as close as 70 miles West of Key West Sat. as a strong cat II. Beyond that who knows.

Thanks again NautiNurse for providing this wealth of info thread. It is much appreciated.

[blam]

"Just topped off the solar battery bank with water. Most important of all - replenished the cache of chocolate. nonpareils and malted milk balls. Bring on the storm..."

Well, I'm off to my doctor's appointment for my flu and pneumonia shot.

The hurricane isn't coming anywhere near here but, I still have the 'stocking-up' urge. Maybe I'll stop at Sam's on the way back, lol.

[NautiNurse]

Had a steel roof installed two years ago. Hoping it can withstand Wilma.

[Termite_Commander]

Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 17


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 19, 2005



the next reconnaissance aircraft will reach Wilma early this
afternoon...but since then there has been little change in the
satellite presentation...although the coldest cloud tops have
warmed a bit. The intensity estimate will be held at 150 kt
pending further reconnaissance data. At this point...the best
estimate for the minimum pressure is a blend of the 881 mb
extrapolated from the aircraft and the 884 mb from an eye drop that
splashed in 23 kt winds. The aircraft reported a distinct outer
wind maximum and microwave data show a formative outer eyewall.
Eyewall replacement cycles will have a strong influence on the
intensity of Wilma over the next couple of days...but these are
impossible to time and are not reflected in the official forecast.
Once Wilma enters the southeastern Gulf of Mexico upper-level
conditions will not be as ideal as they are now and some weakening
is expected...however...it appears that Wilma will still be a
formidable hurricane as it approaches Florida. After that...as
Wilma interacts with a mid-latitude upper-low...the wind field of
Wilma is expected to expand considerably...and even global models
are showing hurricane force winds with the system at 5 days.

Pronounced trochoidal oscillations are being superimposed on a mean
motion of 300/6. There has been little change to the forecast
track through 96 hours. However...recent runs of the GFS and
NOGAPS are suggesting the possibility of a threat to New England.
In this scenario...Wilma becomes captured by a large mid- to
upper-level low forecast to move into the Great Lakes region in
four days. The ECMWF and in particular the UKMET...both older
runs...do not yet indicate this. The five-day official forecast
point has been adjusted to the left and faster than the previous
advisory...but is still much farther offshore of New England than
the GFDL...GFS...and NOGAPS guidance.

Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 19/1500z 17.4n 83.2w 150 kt
12hr VT 20/0000z 18.0n 84.0w 150 kt
24hr VT 20/1200z 19.1n 85.1w 150 kt
36hr VT 21/0000z 20.4n 85.9w 145 kt
48hr VT 21/1200z 21.5n 86.2w 135 kt
72hr VT 22/1200z 24.0n 84.5w 115 kt
96hr VT 23/1200z 30.0n 77.0w 90 kt
120hr VT 24/1200z 39.0n 69.0w 80 kt


$$

[floriduh voter]

[steveegg]

41 seconds; I blame lag :-)

[Rebelbase]

She's going to be off the coast of Cancun on Friday morning then off the coast of NJ on Monday Morning. That is one fast moving storm.

[CFC__VRWC]

I live up in Polk County - not expecting anything more than tropical storm force winds for the moment, but that prognostication is crap. I was going to leave tomorrow at noon to head up to the mountains in North Carolina to camp for a week, but I think I'm going to push that departure time up now. Going to go home and board the critters, load up the truck and grab a few hours sleep before I hit the road at 4 AM or so. I'm afraid if I wait any longer, I-75 will be a parking lot and I wonder if even that will be too late.

At least I wont have to worry about finding a hotel room - if it comes down to that I can always pitch the tent by the side of the highway. :)

[Centurion2000]

bump

[steveegg]

'Tis good to hear. Temps will be seasonable up here, so bring warm clothing (Minnesota is close to my neck of the woods).

[oceanview]

hopefully it will stay far off the coast as it moves up the east coast.

[jslade]

Had a steel roof installed two years ago. Hoping it can withstand Wilma.

We had some pretty big limbs bouncing off our steel roof. No penetration. We had conventionally roofed homes in our neigborhood sporting blue tarps after those three canes last year. Steel roofs are a MUST if you live in a hurricane area IMHO. Sure they're more expensive. But, how much will a flooded home from a shingle roof being blown off or penetrated cost you. You should have no roof problems.

[rodguy911]

Warm clothes! All I have is shorts and tee shirts, and that's for the winter!

[Rebelbase]

I estimate the distance between the Saturday and Monday morning positions at about 1500 miles.

1500miles/48hrs= 31.25mph. Screaming!