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Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
However...one must be very careful before it is declared a record minimum pressure until a full and detailed calibration of the instruments and calculations is performed. So please do not jump into conclusions yet...be patient.
Typical Avila <humor_gallows>
And isn't Avila considered the "conservative" forecaster?
Has there ever been a drop like this before? Isn't it like a 70 mb drop in less than 12 hours? Or more?
Sounds like it's getting pretty blustery down there. Weather Channel now reporting Wilma to be the "strongest hurricane ever". What they're really saying is that the pressure ready is now lower than for any hurricane ever recorded.
We need to send one up the Red Sea :-)
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
I can't sleep.
I have just called her.
It is getting nasty there.
Thankfully, she just got her insurance reinstated last month... at a whopping $700 per month CI which is almost $900 per month $US.
Which makes me wonder if the winds are higher than 175 right now.
The hurricane is moving toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 7 knots. It seems that data from the high altitude NOAA jet ingested by models caused the track guidance envelope to shift slightly westward for the 2 to 3 day period. However...no change in track is indicated over the Gulf of Mexico and guidance continues to turn Wilma sharply to the northeast over Florida. Based on the latest guidance...the official track forecast has been shifted slightly westward but is kept on the eastern side of the envelope. This in case the track guidance shifts back to the east in the next run.
You may want to get those shutters up after all. This is Avila talking in this discussion.
Okay then, I've had enough of nightmare superstorms for one day. I'm going to get, er, two hours of sleep. Goodnight everybody.
I can't sleep here in Louisiana, either, Onyx. It's hard to close your eyes when you're watching history unfold.
Does anyone know a webcam link good for Wilma-watching?
Good night TC.
I don't, but if you find one, will you please ping me? I'll do the same.
Yes, I think so. I was hoping for Stewart, but he's probably taking Valium right now and so isn't available.
Ouch! That's high enough to consider self-insuring. My mother-in-law isn't planning to return until next month. We have plane tix to visit in December. I hope Wilma stays far enough west to spare the island.
Will do! Meanwhile, they just posted the 3-hour update maps at wunderground.com -- gusts to 215 mph and 884 mb -- yeow!!
Yes Avila tends to be conservative, but how much hair splitting can one do at this early stage? The gulf waters are 20 degrees higher than normal, Wilma could possibly grow too big too fast and maybe explode? What if sustained winds become WAY too high? would it reach a breakdown stage?. But as far as I know their has been no recent history of this happening, signs of the times?
Makes a person wonder what winter will be like...and I live in Alaska where its been unusually warm.
She has plane tickets to visit me here in MS beginning November 16. I'll FR mail you her business address. Who knows, you might be one of her clients...lol.
Yep. Who else would stick this particular end to this paragraph (the first in the 5 am discussion; corrected for a typo) -
in addition to the spectacular cloud pattern observed on satellite ...An Air Force reconnaissance plane measured 168 knots at 700 mb and estimated a minimum pressure of 884 mb extrapolated from 700mb. Unofficially...the meteorologist on board the planereliedrelayed an extrapolated 881 mb pressure and measured 884 mb with a dropsonde. This is all in association with a very small eye that has been oscillating between 2 and 4 N mi during eye penetrations. This is probably the lowest minimum pressure ever observed in the Atlantic Basin and is followed by the 888 mb minimum pressure associated with hurricane Gilbert in 1988. However...one must be very careful before it is declared a record minimum pressure until a full and detailed calibration of the instruments and calculations is performed. So please do not jump into conclusions yet...be patient.
WTNT34 KNHC 190835
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE REPORTED 884 MB...THE LOWEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER MEASURED IN A HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN...THIS VALUE SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL CALIBRATED...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PUNTA GRUESA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.5 WEST OR ABOUT 170 MILES...
270 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 365 MILES...
590 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.
WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 MPH...280 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 884
MB...26.10 INCHES. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE EVER RECORDED IN A
HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. HOWEVER...THIS PRESSURE VALUE
SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION UNTIL IT IS FULLY CALIBRATED.
WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15
INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN
ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN ISLAND...AND JAMAICA THROUGH
THURSDAY. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FROM HONDURAS
NORTHWARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY.
REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.2 N... 82.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 884 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
Look at the 5-day cone at wunderground. It now includes all of Florida except for the panhandle, and half of Cuba.
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