Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Termite_Commander]

[steveegg]

I have a question... why does the projected path veer so far to the east, whereas if you project out the curve of the actual path, it would head north-by-northwest?

Almost all of the computer models are showing a moderate-to-severe recurve to the northeast once she gets past Cuba. From what I understand, that's typical of late-season hurricanes (I'm too tired to even attempt a more in-depth explanation).

[Wthrman13]

When the aircraft flies at 850 mb, the standard reduction to sea level is 80% of the flight-level winds, from 700 mb it's 90%. The reason is due to the typical wind profile in a hurricane, with a peak in winds at about 500 m above the surface, with a sharp drop off below that due to friction. If it weren't for friction, the strongest winds in a hurricane would actually be AT the surface. As such, the 850 mb winds are actually stronger than the 700 mb winds usually, requiring a larger reduction to get the sfc winds.

[Stayingawayfromthedarkside]

Ihope not, I have relatives in Tampa.

[Crazieman]

700 mb pressure is the 'usual' flight level. Thats 90%

However, they flew at 850mb, which puts it at around 85% instead.

162kt x 1.1 x .85 = 151 (or 150mph)

[HoHoeHeaux]

So you see it hitting Cuba, weakening, and not regaining strength heading into FL? God I hope so.

[steveegg]

Thanks. Now if I can remember that at sunrise, that will be a miracle.

[geopyg]

Here's an earlier forecast from Tuesday morning from Forecaster Franklin. looks like it's back to the drawing boards for him! (And not to be hard on forecasters - more just intrigued, and concerned, by nature's power).


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 18/1500z 16.5n 80.6w 65 kt
12hr VT 19/0000z 17.0n 81.2w 75 kt
24hr VT 19/1200z 17.7n 82.3w 90 kt
36hr VT 20/0000z 18.5n 83.5w 100 kt
48hr VT 20/1200z 19.6n 84.5w 105 kt
72hr VT 21/1200z 22.0n 85.5w 105 kt
96hr VT 22/1200z 24.0n 84.0w 100 kt
120hr VT 23/1200z 28.5n 78.5w 75 kt

[Crazieman]

Oops I got that wrong. Knot is 1.15

So it is 80%

[buickmackane]

What's this about a northwest track now?

Wouldn't that send it back toward Louisiana instead of the original predicted path across Florida and into the Atlantic?

Well, I've still got plenty of emergency supplies left over from Rita, should it come to that, sigh...

[Termite_Commander]

Ah, thanks.

[My Favorite Headache]

Note the "climb to safety" at 700mb... unbelievable flight level. This storm is crazy. They cant even effectively MEASURE IT!
000

URNT14 KNHC 190515
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01186 10809 12467 11716 11051
02184 20811 22446 21616 12053
03182 30812 32438 31515 12059
04180 40814 42419 41816 12058
05178 50816 52397 51717 12063
06176 60817 62369 61616 12073
07173 70817 72328 71818 12052
08171 80818 82279 81919 12062
MF169 M0819 MF162
OBS 01 AT 03:54:00Z
OBS 08 AT 04:27:20Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01166 10820 13941 11212 28043
02164 20822 23980 21210 30035
03163 30824 33007 31010 31048
04161 40827 43032 41010 32050
05160 50828 53049 50707 32046
06158 60830 63065 60808 29042
07156 70832 73070 70808 32046
MF168 M0819 MF140
OBS 01 AT 04:38:00Z
OBS 07 AT 05:05:00Z
OBS 07 SFC WND /////
AF308 0724A WILMA OB 10
INITIATED CLIMB TO 700MB IN EYE OF HURRICANE FOR SAFETY




[conservativepoet]

Tomorrow, there will be quite a few folks in a state of shock at this new info. Drudge has just picked up on it.

[Crazieman]

Read 329. Correction is 162 x 1.15 x .8 = 148 = 150

Its my bedtime.

[steveegg]

So you see it hitting Cuba, weakening, and not regaining strength heading into FL? God I hope so.

The eastern couple of computer models (excepting the outlier that has her trapising across Cuba) show her at least grazing Cuba. The others, and the official track, have her staying out in the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula.

The intensity models (which are anything but proven) show a weakening once she gets out into the Gulf and somewhat-cooler waters. Of course, the more-widely-reported SHIPS model has already been blown past, so take that for what it's worth.

[metmom]

Nothing's certain but death and taxes. Some of these hurricanes have had some pretty erratic paths this year and so far Wilma doesn't seem to be an exception. It's going to be going through some pretty warm water and with not much interference from land to weaken it that way. A lot will depend on atmospheric conditions that can seem to change almost as fast as this hurricane has. Fortunately, cat 5 is so hard to reach and maintain, it doesn't seem likely to be a real threat.

[Rte66]

Our local met in Houston liked the southern outlier that takes it due east across Cuba and out into the Atlantic, never to be seen on land again. We can all hope.

(I've still got most of my Rita stuff, too, even tho our TX season is "officially" over now--as of 10/15. This season is too scary to believe that.)

[Wthrman13]

700 mb is the standard level they fly at nowadays in hurricanes for safety reasons (in intense hurricanes, the 850 mb level can get very close to the surface). They can still effectively measure the intensity at that pressure level, so that's not a problem.

[steveegg]

Note the "climb to safety" at 700mb... unbelievable flight level. This storm is crazy. They cant even effectively MEASURE IT!

I can't wait for the next penetration; the 901 mb may yet be an outlier. From what the winds were, however, I doubt it.

[NormsRevenge]

Wilma Strengthens to Category 4 Hurricane

By FREDDY CUEVAS, Associated Press Writer


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20051019/ap_on_re_la_am_ca/hurricane_wilma

SAN PEDRO SULA, Honduras - Hurricane Wilma whirled into the record books as the 12th such storm of the season, strengthening early Wednesday into a Category 4 storm and setting a course to sideswipe Central America or Mexico. Forecasters warned of a "significant threat" to Florida by the weekend.


Forecasters said early Wednesday that Wilma had became a dangerous Category 4 hurricane with winds reaching 150 mph. Early Tuesday its winds were 80 mph.