Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[NautiNurse]

Bastardi is blowing smoke again over on Cavuto.

Was on a business call. What did he say?

[Michael Goldsberry]

Bastardi said he expects a cat-3 at least.

[tutstar]

and....

remember Charlie...

if you are on the coast anywhere near they think it will make landfall then you need to prepare. Storms are still not totally predictable by man and do pull surprises on us.

[steveegg]

Bastardi's looking at Wilma making Cat 5 briefly before she makes it out of the Caribbean.

We need to figure out who gets the first swing at him :-)

[CajunConservative]

What the hell does it matter whether or not the surf's up pic is used or not? I'm sorry but it's just not that big of a deal to be honest. I don't care one way or the other and I got whacked by Rita, so as someone who lives in hurricane country the links and information is what I read the thread for, the logo doesn't make one bit of difference.

[sheikdetailfeather]

Thanks tutstar. I am not on the coast but north of Orlando and Charlie scared us big time here. It was a matter of listening to Orlando getting winds over 100 and counting down the time till it got to us. We were in the hallway with pillows over our heads running out into the living room to see the broadcasts. WFTV's Tom Terry did a GREAT job forecasting Charlie's turn in advance of a lot of people. I will go to my sister's home since I live in a mobile home but she has a lot of big trees there. Besides..she has great neighbors who cook hotdogs and coffee on the grill during hurricanes. hehehe.

[jeffers]

Keep in mind Rita's behavior when she accelerated shortly before landfall. She ran off and left a ridge of surge behind her that was driven ashore hours later by winds in the right rear quadrant.

[jeffers]

Keep in mind Rita's behavior when she accelerated shortly before landfall. She ran off and left a ridge of surge behind her that was driven ashore hours later by winds in the right rear quadrant.

[Libertarian444]

5 pm update is out

[GOPJ]

thanks for the ping.

[Rebelbase]

Mayor Nagin, it that you?

[Rebelbase]

I'd love to be holed up in Ft. Jefferson, Dry Tortugas when Wilma goes screaming by.

[Dog Gone]

Are you paying attention to this?

[Marak]

OUCH!

Your graphic puts landfall on my front lawn. I sure hope this thing wavers one way or the other.

[Capt. Tom]

Your graphic puts landfall on my front lawn. I sure hope this thing wavers one way or the other.

Here is a second opinion. -Tom

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 13
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on October 18, 2005

 
...Hurricane watches issued for Cuba and Mexico...

At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane
Watch for the provinces of Matanzas westward through Pinar del
Rio...and for the Isle of Youth.  A Hurricane Watch means that
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours.

 
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the government of Mexico has issued a
Hurricane Watch for the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Allen to Cabo
Catoche.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.

 
All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of Wilma.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near
latitude 16.7 north... longitude 81.5 west or about 180 miles...
290 km... south of Grand Cayman.

 
Wilma is moving toward the west-northwest near  8 mph...13 km/hr.  A
turn to the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph...130 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours...and Wilma is expected to become a major hurricane during
the next day or two.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  15 miles... 30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.

 
The latest minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance
aircraft was 970 mb...28.64 inches.

 
Wilma is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 5
to 10 inches...with isolated amounts of 15 inches...over the Cayman
Islands...Jamaica...Haiti...and Cuba.  Total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated amounts of 12 inches...are
possible over portions of Honduras and Nicaragua.

Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...16.7 N... 81.5 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near  8 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds... 80 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 970 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.

 

Forecaster Franklin

[Strategerist]

For a 5 day forecast, that's essentially identical to the NHC forecast.

[NautiNurse]

Actually it is the difference in landfall beween Naples and Cape Coral.

[Strategerist]

Other thing to keep in mind is people need to get Charley out of their heads; even if the track ends up the same this is likely to be a very different storm.

Instead of a tiny Cat 2 that suddenly strengthens to Cat 4 before landfall this is likely going to be a very wide Cat 4 that gradually weakens to Cat 3 or Cat 2 before landfall.

Instead of a narrow swath of extreme wind damage, you're likely to see a very broad area of severe storm surge damage; Southwest Florida is exceedingly vulnerable to storm surge; because of the unique nature of Charley it caused minimal storm surge.

If you look at the surge maps for SW Florida counties it's sobering; Cat 3+ surge can extend many miles inland.

[Marak]

--Actually it is the difference in landfall beween Naples and Cape Coral.--

Absolutely correct, and that makes a tremendous difference.