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The Leaves Won't Be The Only Thing To Fall! (Market Crash Prediction)
321Gold ^ | Oct 17, 2005 | Enrico Orlandini

Posted on 10/17/2005 7:59:53 AM PDT by Travis McGee

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To: WoofDog123
"$50 on a one ounce coin!!"

Indeed, and that's for those that had the gold sent to them and not stored at the "companies vaults". ;)



201 posted on 10/18/2005 3:29:35 AM PDT by G.Mason (The enemy in the United States is not the terrorist ... it is the Democrat Party)
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To: defenderSD

Real SEAL, a LONG time ago. Class 105, 1979. Now I live a bit north of Seaworld, in "Baja La Jolla," (PB).


202 posted on 10/18/2005 7:35:07 AM PDT by Travis McGee (--- www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com ---)
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To: Republic of Texas

Do you think all of the key market fundamentals are the same as a year ago?


203 posted on 10/18/2005 7:42:04 AM PDT by Travis McGee (--- www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com ---)
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To: Mulder

Yes, the 70s. The best thing to have going into the 70s was a really nice house with a big, big fixed rate mortgage. You then had the pleasure of sticking it to the bank by paying them with money that was losing 20% of it's value a year, at some points, while taking the full appreciation on your house. Lots of people bought houses in the seventies for $40,000 and sold them in the 90s for $500,000 or more.


204 posted on 10/18/2005 7:46:43 AM PDT by Jack Black
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To: Mulder

re: missed one.

Illegal Invasion ??


205 posted on 10/18/2005 7:48:24 AM PDT by Jack Black
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To: Travis McGee

hey Travis,

if you have a ping list - count me in.

There have been quite a few good comments from folks who obviously know the score, good folks to know when it gets dicey.

Regards,
Lurking'


206 posted on 10/18/2005 9:29:26 AM PDT by LurkingSince'98
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To: Toddsterpatriot
Which economic fundamentals don't look good to you now?

Loss of manufacturing base
We manufacture more than ever.

Perhaps in dollar amount but manufacturing as a percentage of GDP has been declining year over year.

Failed educational system
Okay, but not economic.

A well educated population inovates and retains/produces jobs. A poorly educated population does not.

Debased fiat currency and corresponding inflation
Debased compared to what? And what is the inflation rate?

How about the Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, the Euro, and Gold to name a few the past 5 years. Today's PPI numbers show inflation for producers was up 1.9% last month... 6.9% since last year.

Increasing resource scarcity
Like what?

Copper, oil, and natural gas.

--------------------------------------------
One more economic fundamental that does not look good:

Record levels of outstanding debt.

207 posted on 10/18/2005 9:50:59 AM PDT by simon says what
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To: LurkingSince'98

I will, but I try to use it only rarely. I also have a gun thread ping list I'll put you on.


208 posted on 10/18/2005 9:51:17 AM PDT by Travis McGee (--- www.EnemiesForeignAndDomestic.com ---)
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To: Travis McGee

No they are not. But this article, in one form or another, is published every fall.


209 posted on 10/18/2005 10:01:29 AM PDT by Republic of Texas (Socialism Always Fails)
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To: simon says what
Perhaps in dollar amount but manufacturing as a percentage of GDP has been declining year over year.

So, what is the ideal % of GDP? What harm is caused by manufacturing growing more slowly than services?

How about the Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, the Euro, and Gold to name a few the past 5 years.

You have any sources? And if true, what damage has it caused?

Record levels of outstanding debt.

Be more specific. Actual numbers would be nice. Thanks.

210 posted on 10/18/2005 10:14:09 AM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (If you agree with Marx, the AFL-CIO and E.P.I. please stop calling yourself a conservative!!)
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To: Toddsterpatriot
The source for the sinking dollar against the Canadian Dollar, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc, Euro, and Gold over the past 5 years can be found at bigcharts.com. You used it yesterday so I'm sure you can use it again today. Here are the symbols:

Candian Dollar: c_cad
Japanese Yen: c_jpy
Swiss Franc: c_chf
Euro: c_eur
Gold: 38099902

Record credit market debt outstanding is shown as a percentage of GDP in this chart:

Total Credit Market Debt since 1952 in chart format can be found here: Chart

Total Credit Market Debt since 1952 in data format can be found here: Data

211 posted on 10/18/2005 11:54:05 AM PDT by simon says what
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To: simon says what
Total credit market? What kind of crappy chart is that? Don't you have anything clearer? How about total government debt, total corporate debt and total household debt?

Okay, so if the dollar sank against those currencies, (haven't had a chance to look at the charts yet) what has the damage to our economy been? Shrinking GDP, high unemployment or is it something more subtle?

212 posted on 10/18/2005 1:18:07 PM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (If you agree with Marx, the AFL-CIO and E.P.I. please stop calling yourself a conservative!!)
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To: Toddsterpatriot
Don't you have anything clearer?

Seems pretty clear to me. Government, corporate, and household debt are all included in Total Credit Market Debt and it is over 3x GDP...$38 Trillion. I'll let you find the breakdowns if you wish.

213 posted on 10/18/2005 2:04:41 PM PDT by simon says what
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To: simon says what
Government, corporate, and household debt are all included in Total Credit Market Debt and it is over 3x GDP...$38 Trillion.

Without a similar chart showing government, corporate and household assets, it's difficult to see if we're over-leveraged.

I'll let you find the breakdowns if you wish.

If you could that would be great. Thanks.

214 posted on 10/18/2005 2:12:52 PM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (If you agree with Marx, the AFL-CIO and E.P.I. please stop calling yourself a conservative!!)
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To: Toddsterpatriot
Without a similar chart showing government, corporate and household assets, it's difficult to see if we're over-leveraged.

Why ?

215 posted on 10/18/2005 2:17:56 PM PDT by simon says what
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To: simon says what

$37 trillion of debt versus $900 trillion of assets isn't as scary as $37 trillion of debt and $35 trillion of assets.


216 posted on 10/18/2005 2:29:42 PM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (If you agree with Marx, the AFL-CIO and E.P.I. please stop calling yourself a conservative!!)
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To: Toddsterpatriot
$37 trillion of debt versus $900 trillion of assets isn't as scary as $37 trillion of debt and $35 trillion of assets.

What are you talking about ? Please explain and provide sources as you have requested of others.

217 posted on 10/18/2005 5:01:09 PM PDT by simon says what
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To: simon says what
What are you talking about ?

I wanted to know what government, corporate and household assets were. You asked why. Obviously debt alone tells you nothing about leverage.

Please explain and provide sources as you have requested of others.

I thought you were looking for the asset breakdown? I have none.

218 posted on 10/18/2005 5:46:22 PM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (If you agree with Marx, the AFL-CIO and E.P.I. please stop calling yourself a conservative!!)
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To: simon says what
Please explain and provide sources as you have requested of others.

Sorry, I misread your previous post. I thought you were going to find assets. Obviously your point about record debts means nothing without info about our assets. Nice try though.

219 posted on 10/18/2005 5:49:36 PM PDT by Toddsterpatriot (If you agree with Marx, the AFL-CIO and E.P.I. please stop calling yourself a conservative!!)
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To: Toddsterpatriot
Obviously your point about record debts means nothing without info about our assets.

Wow you are pulling things out of the anusphere. The Debt to GDP ratio is 300+%. It is the highest it has ever been. This debt props up the asset bubble. The debt needs to be repaid from income... aka GDP. If you would like to provide a link to asset values being larger than the debt values I'll gladly look at it.

220 posted on 10/18/2005 6:08:12 PM PDT by simon says what
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