However, some people might wonder: could Bush really get a top notch conservative with a track record through the Senate? Absolutely he could, especially after the furor the Miers pick has created.
Without question, the 51 votes necessary to confirm a judge like Janice Rogers Brown, Michael Luttig, or Priscilla Owen would be there. Moreover, Bush could get the 51 votes needed for the nuclear option as well. Keep in mind that there were 48 Republican votes for the nuclear option initially, which means that the GOP only needs 2 members of the "Gang of 14" to change sides, along with a vote from Cheney, to win the day.
Out of the 7 Republicans who were against the nuclear option last time, at least 4 of them would be highly likely to change their tune this time around, especially after seeing the raw fury the base has unleashed over the Miers nomination. Mike DeWine is up for reelection next year and Lincoln Chafee has a credible opponent for the Republican primaries. If either of them would like to be reelected as US Senators next year, they would vote for the nuclear option. Then there's John McCain, who can kiss his dreams of being President good-bye if he goes the wrong way on the vote and Lindsey Graham who has as much as said he'll vote for the nuclear option if the Democrats filibuster a SCOTUS nominee over ideology. Given the way that the votes are lining up, it's doubtful that Harry Reid would even want to pursue a filibuster he'd be guaranteed to lose, but if he did, the GOP would come out on the winning end of the fight.
That's why those who say the President would be seriously harmed politically by withdrawing the Miers nomination have it exactly backwards. The political damage is being caused by conservative infighting and it would stop if Miers were withdrawn. Furthermore, if the President decided to replace Miers with a credible nominee, many of very same people who are slamming the nomination today would turn around and enthusiastically support Miers' replacement.
Man, this guy is an optimistic vote counter. I'm sorry, but I still think we missed our chance before and I don't see those kind of RINO defections toward the constitutional option. Plus you've got a weaknened president ... not by this so much, although it's not helping ... and a severely weakened Senate Majority Leader. I simply do not see it happening. The circumstances on Oct. 12, 2005 are simply not the same as they were before.