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apple will face *huge* competition from Sony (remember them? they invented the walkman and build really high quality stuff too, expensive but cheaper than Apple). they will also face *huge* competition from Pioneer, Toshiba, Panasonic, Creative, iRiver, and of course generic chinese knock-offs, of the aforementioned none may not have a speaker hooked up into the clickwheel, but in general will be what, as much as 80% cheaper?

They've been yapping about the "iPod killer" for some time now. Fact is, Sony and the rest haven't done squat and as a result, Apple is now in the dominant position in the MP3 player market with economies of scale that are only now just starting to jell. Consider that from the introduction of the iPod in 2001 to present, Apple moved 22 million iPod products. But 8.5 million of those iPods shipped in the last quarter! In the coming quarter, Apple will likely ship that many in "nanos" alone! Next year at this time, there will be more than 50 million iPods out there and iTunes will be moving millions of songs a day.

In other words, Apple is with the MP3 player today where Sony was with the Walkman back in 1982. Sony and the rest had their chance to compete with the iPod but they blew it. They brought devices to the marketplace that were clunky and cheap by comparison. None of them even came close to providing the iPod "user interface" that has made it such a hit.

Apple is now a juggernaut. Personally, I don't think anybody is going to catch them. Especially after tomorrow's big announcements.

Engineering wise, Sony has the potential to steal market share from Apple. realizing the potential is something else again. Sony can build *really nice* products (i have a NE500 ATTRAC/MP3 disk player that costs $40 that is astonishingly well made and has fabulous sound quality)

but whoever does Sony marketing must be the same idiot that stuck with betamax after it was clear that format was going nowhere.

the ATTRAC format is a very bad joke, and "sonic soundscape" software that must be used with Sony's iPOD competition is difficult to use and extremely repressive, whereas iTunes is only somewhat repressive. makes you wonder if the sheep will rebel against DRM as envisioned by all the major players, from Intel to Apple to Microsoft to Sony to the RIAA...

but it looks like losing money is making Sony wake up a little. they have *FINALLY* ditched the ATTRAC format and have totally embraced MP3 since nobody likes ATTRAC or uses it, and the next generation of mp3 players from Sony should be much better.

as for iPOD and iTunes being joined at the hip, probably so.

the CD as we know it is a dodo, predictably as the CD is showing its age, and iPod/NET/iTunes is a reasonable paradigm to take its place. the question is whether Apple can sustain iPOD/iTunes sales in the face of both market saturation and competition from other vendors as the economy begins to sour for various reasons... and at the same time the content of the songs offered by iTunes becomes more and more mediocre...

as for Apple following Sony's footsteps, a good cautionary tale given how stagnant Sony marketing innovation has become after their originally brilliant walkman design...