The first predictions of 10,000 dead New Orleanians after Katrina came from a LSU computer model. (At that point, Nagin was saying, "hundreds, maybe thousands.")
I was a skeptic of the 10,000 figure. Can I get some money from whatever industries?
The problem with the computer models are that in 1987 they said 2-3 degrees by 2000, then in 1990 it was 2-4 by 2010 now its 3-11 by 2100. Everytime the date passes and the temp hasn't risen enough they reset the clock.