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He has nominated the rightmost candidate who is confirmable.
And you "know" that because Bush nominated her. And Bush nominated her because she's the rightmost candidate who is confirmable. And we know that, because Bush nominated her.
Nice circular logic.
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No, we know that because the gang of 14 have 7 RINOs with several up for re-election, and They Have Talked To Bush. As has Specter. As has all the GOP caucus.
Confirmability is not guesswork. You ask, you get an answer. Luttig or a more rightward choice would not be confirmable. In Bush's informed opinion, this choice is the rightward most nominee who is confirmable.
Well, this is just speculation on my part, but I suspect that considering a vote in the abstract is different from being faced with one. Just because they said they wouldn't vote to confirm, doesn't mean it wouldn't happen when push comes to shove.