One point, folks. The capacity of the boat has been reported as 50 persons. There were 49 souls aboard. So while she was loaded to capacity, she was presumably not significantly overloaded. I have sailed in boats of this size and type, and as a boater felt perfectly safe.
A former captain of the Ethan Allen was interviewed on the local news. He stated that he was always careful to turn the boat into an oncoming wave or wake. With any boat, catch a big wake broadside and you are in for a rough ride at least.
As a boater, I know that sometimes two or more wakes can interact to produce a much larger wave. The wakes can also interact/reflect from the shoreline to pop up in unexpected places. I was out on my old Venture 21 (small sailboat) on a day with only gentle breezes. There were other boats out, some of them large and fast, but my boat was very stable. Suddenly from out of nowhere three wakes (I think) came together right under the boat! I almost got tossed overboard (yes, I was wearing a life jacket.) If I hadn't had the swing keel down she'd have turned turtle. No warning- the small wakes suddenly joined right under the boat. One in a million chance of being in the wrong place at the wrong time.
My guess is that a number of small things went wrong all at the same time to make this happen. Some water in the bilges, a moment's inattention by the captain, wakes converging, passengers too frail to keep from being tossed to the edge of the deck, the weatherproof cabin that kept passengers from escaping. Most likely all these things had to happen together to add up to a tragedy.
My prayers are with the victims and their families.
Good analysis. Thank you.
I agree: That was a sound post from you. I did hear on the news tonight (local) that some of the benches were anchored and some were not. I would think that if the passengers were all seniors that their reflexes would be somewhat diminished and this certainly was a contributing factor. My thoughts and prayers are also with the captain of the boat. The Warren County Sheriff was quoted as saying initial investigation shows no culpability or negligence on the captain's part. He is a retired NYS trooper who is reportedly devastated.
"My guess is that a number of small things went wrong all at the same time to make this happen"
Very possible but one BIG thing is that the beam of this boat and the height of the deck is WAY out of line for 50 passengers.
You look at any 50 passenger fishing boat and it is 5 times the tonnage, twice the beam and far more draft - plus whats up with the captain not needing a license for a 49 passenger boat for hire? That is ludicrous.