I have been afraid of a malicious, politically motivated prosecution for a long time. It's pretty clear the original matter is a non-starter legally, because the law related to the release of her name quite simply doesn't apply to her case. So, in my opinion, an honest prosecutor would have dropped this case a long time ago.
Even if, somewhere down the road, Rove, Libby, or whoever Fitzgerald targets may be acquitted, the damage to the Bush presidency of an indictment will be enormous.
Fitzgerald has a good reputation, and the calculus for him may well be balancing, on the one hand, the danger to his reputation by bringing indictments on a conspiracy charge that may turn out to be seen by the public as indicting a ham sandwich, with, on the other hand, trying not be become persona non grata in the Dim party.
So I guess I'm still thinking he'll go with a report criticizing Rove and Libby, but stop short of indictments, as an attempt to satisfy both sides.
You know, it's possible that these leaks from his office as to bringing a possible conspiracy charge are essentially a "weather balloon" by him to see how such charges would play to the public.