A. Threats from Iran
Not only has the "President" of Iran explicitly threatened to wipe Israel off the map, he has threatened the destruction of the "Anglo-Saxon empire" first.
I urge all Freepers/TMers to check out this thread:
Iran threat
Be sure to check the graphics in the article at the start.
In the last few days Iran has:
1. Threatened the destruction of the U.S. and Britain.
2. Threatened to wipe Israel off the map.
(NOTE: Iran now claims the threats to Israel were "nothing new", and that these threats merely repeat words of the last 27 years.)
3. Fired its ambassadors to Britain, France, and Germany for being insufficiently supportive of the above threats.
4. Recalled 18 other ambassadors (a common step taken prior to starting a war).
5. Initiated widespread street demonstrations calling for death to America, burned the American flag in front of their President, etc.
This is happening NOW for a reason. What is that reason?
B. The Night of Power
As many of you know, many Muslims believe the "Night of Power" was either Saturday night or will be tonight (Sunday night), depending on what part of the world you live in and your interpretation of how to time the start of Ramadan. This is their most "holy" time.
No attack is likely during the time Muslims are supposed to be praying. However, Allah is supposed to be most favorably disposed towards their prayers during this night, and they truly believe planned mass murders are more likely to find favor with Allah if they have prayed for them all night during this particular night. Likewise, a successful attack shortly after the "Night of Power" would be considered by many Muslims as a sign of Allah's approval.
C. Islamic (Shiite) prophecy.
An Islamic "prophecy" believed by the Shiites (but not by all Muslims) predicts big things for a certain Ramadan in the future, and this particular Ramadan seems to be a fit.
This particular Ramadan had two eclipses, one of the moon and one of the sun. The first eclipse (lunar) happened on the first day of Ramadan in Saudi Arabia, but was not visible in all Muslim lands.
NOTE: Ramadan did not start on the same day in all Muslim lands. Hence, for much of the world, THIS Ramadan did not have two eclipses. For instance, Ramadan did not start in the U.S. until a day AFTER it started in Saudi Arabia. For this reason, including the first eclipse in this year's Ramadan is controversial. However, for some Muslims, the starting day in Saudi Arabia is what would count for purposes of this prophecy.
The second eclipse (solar) happened in the middle of Ramadan and is not controversial.
Why do the above eclipses matter? Because the Shiites have a prophecy saying the Mahdi will be revealed in a year with a Ramadan including two eclipses.
This Shiite prophecy goes further, saying the first eclipse will be of the moon and will occur on the first day of Ramadan. The second eclipse will be of the sun, and will occur in the middle of Ramadan.
NOTE: THIS Ramadan is the last Ramadan in our lifetimes, or even in the lifetimes of our grandchildren, that will have the features needed to comply with this prophecy. The details of this particular prophecy are NOT generally accepted by Sunnis, but ARE accepted by the Shiites (Iran is Shiite).
D. Description of the Mahdi.
As for the Mahdi himself, some Muslims believe the Mahdi will have a high forehead, a prominent nose, and a mole on his face. All of these are obvious facial features of Bin Laden.
Finally, the Mahdi will be descended from Mohammed. Osama has now taken to signing his communications as "Osama bin Mohammed bin Laden. In other words, Osama is now claiming to be descended from Mohammed.
E. Attack on Nalchick
The attack on the Russian city of Nalchick was launched prematurely. When the Russians captured two of the conspirators the rest of the terrorists decided their best chance was to launch the attack early.
According to official announcements from the Russian military, the attack was planned to occur about two weeks later than it actually did (i.e., about NOW), and to have included 700 attackers (it only included 130). The actual plan included capturing the local airport, and then flying captured planes into Russian dams and nuclear power plants.
The planned attack on Nalchick was huge. It was intended to bring Russia to its knees, and it might well have done so if all the elements in the plot had succeeded. If it had happened on the original timetable, it would be happening around now.
To sum up:
A. Iran has just issued blood curdling threats against the U.S. and Israel, recalled or fired many ambassadors, and launched rabid street demonstrations against the U.S. and Israel.
B. The Night of Power (Saturday night or Sunday night, depending on where you are) is the best night to ask Allah for things, such as blessings for a terrorist attack.
C. Islamic prophecy for some Muslims (not all), says THIS Ramadan is particularly likely to be the one that ushers in the year the Mahdi is revealed.
D. Bin Laden fits the physical description they are looking for, and has recently started to claim the needed descent from Mohammed.
E. The attack on the Russian city of Nalchick was actually intended to occur about NOW, which could easily mean it was supposed to occur AFTER the Night of Power. This was a HUGE attack which had the potential to severely cripple Russia.
Conclusion
It seems to me that the Islamonazis in Iran HAVE to make their move this year if they wish their own prophecies to be fulfilled in their lifetimes. Other interpretations of their actions are possible (they could just be crazy), but their recent actions are consistent with plans for an eminent attack.
It seems quite likely that the attack in Russia was timed to occur AFTER this year's Night of Power, but had to be launched early due to good/lucky work by Russian intel. If a MAJOR attack was planned in Russia for this time period, it is quite possible that MAJOR attacks are planned elsewhere as well.
All in all, it seems to me that the next week has a very high risk of major terrorist attacks. Perhaps even the long threatened big event.
I do not know enough about Islam to know what specific day they think Allah would be most likely to be pleased by mass murder, but I doubt that it will be today.
My guess is that the Night of Power needs to be over everywhere before they attack. That could mean they attack as early as Monday, October 31st.
I have expected a major attack many times in the past and obviously been wrong every time. However, I am personally convinced that they do, in fact, have the ability to attack. Why they have not done so I do not know. Perhaps they have tried, several times, and we foiled each plot (let's hope). Or perhaps they were waiting for what they consider the best time.
The scope and intended timing of the Nalchick attack, plus the prophecies believed by at least some Muslims (including the Iranians), plus the recent threats and behavior of Iran, have convinced me that we are facing a much higher chance of attack in the near future.
I have never seen so many indicators of an impending attack at one time before.
You've got it exactly backwards - it's impossible for a lunar eclipse to occur on the first night of Ramadan because Ramadan starts at the new moon, and you can only ever get an eclipse of the full moon. It was the solar eclipse that was the first.
Nevertheless most of the other comments here appear to be accurate. It's actually not all that unusual for there to be two eclipses in Ramadan - it's happened a number of times over the last thousand years, usually once or twice a century - but it's very unusual for them both to be total and both visible from Mecca. In the case this year, the solar eclipse was annular rather than total, and the lunar was only partial (not sure this matters as far as the prophecy goes), and in both cases the maximum eclipse was not visible from Mecca (in the case of the lunar eclipse only the far eastern tip of Saudi Arabia could see the very end of the lunar eclipse, and the rest of the peninsula could not see it at all). Again from the point of view of the jihadis I'm not sure this matters.
As it turns out, you're also quite correct that the next time two eclipses will occur during Ramadan is hundreds of years away - the timing just doesn't happen to work for those years, though I think after that the double eclipses during Ramadan become more common again.
As for whether this or any other Ramadan can be a fit, that seems to be debatable on other grounds as well. Apparently some tellings of the prophecy anticipate two solar eclipses during Ramadan - this is obviously impossible given current solar system mechanics. (It might become possible for example if we manage to acquire a second moon at some point in the far distant future ... it's not impossible that one might sometime get captured into our solar system but it's certainly not likely either).
However some other tellings and interpretations of the prophecy apparently might allow an eclipse of the sun and moon instead. Since this is from the Hadith rather than the Koran it's less trusted - but it seems that the prophecies from the Hadith are often taken as a kind of Rorschach ink blot whose meaning depends at least as much on the reader as it does on the words.
There's little doubt though that the jihadis want to seize this Ramadan as the time to annoint the Mahdi. It would provide some legitimacy to a movement that in some ways appears to be floundering in terms of its support in the Muslim world and also in the number of attacks thwarted.
A very dangerous time indeed ....
Great analysis EH! I was thinking along those lines this morning.
>> a successful attack shortly after the "Night of Power" would be considered by many Muslims as a sign of Allah's approval <<
IIRC, 10/29/05 is the 'Night of Determination'. From what I've read, this is the night the mahdi would become known. Would be a good time for someone to claim they are this mahdi and give his 'blessing' for major attacks to begin.
I agree with you and brucew - now is not the time to relax.