It is not only possible, it is now likely. Iran has announced it will open an oil bourse in the coming months, with payment in Euros accepted. The significance of this for geopolitics cannot be overstated. The dollar enjoys its status as the world's reserve currency because currently evey nation has to exchange its currency for dollars to buy oil. This creates an artificial demand for dollars. That demand helps to prop the dollar up.
China, Russia, and to a lesser extent, Europe, all want this to change. Some Arab nations also want it to change, because as the situation now stands they collect barrels of dollars, which puts their capital at risk should the dollar fall. It did fall for three years in a row, prompting folks like Warren Buffett and Bill Gates to convert millions of dollars to other investments. Then the dollar strengthened, for several reasons.
With the administration vowing to spend billions on the gulf coast; with a trade deficit of 600-700 billion; with a federal deficit previously projected in the 300-400 billion range; with an American savings rate that is now negative; with Americans borrowing 2.7-3 billion per day, which is about 80% of the rest of the world's savings, the dollar will almost certainly begin to fall again. Any conservative who does not plan accordingly is abnegating financial responsibility to himself and his family.
Foreign central banks, who buy about half of U.S. debt, have indicated their unwillingness to continue buying massive amounts of that debt. Government data show those banks are following through on those statements. The slack is currently being picked up by institutions in the Carribean, and Lord only knows where those folks are coming up with that kind of dough. With no domestic savings to fund increased deficit spending, the Fed likely will be forced to monetize that debt. That means printing more money. The fed will have to counter this inflationary action by continuing on its rate raisng venture to maintain a strong dollar. This means higher interest rates, with a corresponding rise in ARMs, which account for over 30% of home mortgages in the past year or so, 40% or more in areas where real estate has entered the bubble stage. As marginal homeowners get squeezed, they find themselves up against the new bankruptcy law, which raises their monthly credit card payment. In this environment we will find out whether the stock market is overvalued or not, and gold and silver or undervalued or not.
The burning question in cyber-space today is "Will this policy be limited to just Iraq?"
We'll find out after the Iranian oil bourse opens. Or maybe before.
By the way, if you like coffee it is past time to stock up. Almost all imports come/came through the port of New Orleans. No new deliveries for the foreseeable future.