From NOOA
000 WTNT33 KNHC 231748 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 24A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005
...RITA ON A SLOW WEAKENING TREND...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA EAST OF MORGAN CITY TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN ...AND FROM SOUTH OF PORT O'CONNOR TO PORT ARANSAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST OR ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON TEXAS AND ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. A FURTHER SLOW WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS STILL EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. AN ELEVATED PLATFORM ON ISLE DENIERES NEAR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST JUST REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 58 MPH.
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 931 MB...27.49 INCHES. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... LOCALLY UP TO 20 FEET AT HEAD OF BAYS AND NEARBY RIVERS...WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA COASTS IN THE AREAS AFFECTED BY KATRINA. TIDES IN THOSE AREAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES...AND RESIDENTS THERE COULD EXPERIENCE COASTAL FLOODING. LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY RITA WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOST PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST.
RITA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AS IT MOVES INLAND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SINCE RITA IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INCLUDING SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...27.8 N... 92.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM CDT.
FORECASTER AVILA
"That is what is so strange right now in Houston. I have lived in Houston most of my life and have never felt heat like this in September with very low humidity. My own prediction is once this thing starts to get close to land, the dry air will suck the energy out of this thing. I think it will be a true miracle of God."
I decided to stay put. I am in NW Houston and was going to leave for San Antonio at 4 a.m. on Wednesday but my brother left earlier and he said he went 10 miles in 2 1/2 hours and was worried about running out of gas. I have 4 kids and 1 on the way. I was concerned if we would have gotten the dirty side of the storm but decided to hunker down when I saw we were getting the western side. Lucky decision but good decision. I prayed about it and felt good about my decision. I would have definitely left yesterday if if looked like Houston would be taking a direct hit.