[raygun]

Actually,

URNT12 KNHC 232322Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/2303Z
B. 28 DEG 28 MIN N
92 DEG 54 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2492 MA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 151 DEG 121 KT
G. 061 DEG 17 NM
H. 930 MB
I. 12 C/ 3050 M
J. 20 C/ 3061 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN E-SW
M. E 080-30-20
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 2318A RITA OB 31
MAX FL WIND 121 KT NE QUAD 2258Z
MAX FLT LVL TEMP 060/10 NM FROM CNTR

is suggesting to me that the storm is becoming more robust. What this means no me, is that the storm isn't going to weaken rapidly. What you see is what you get (and for quite some time to come).

NOW I'm seeing evidence of entrainment. That's because the humidity dropped (dewpoint remained constant, but inner eye temps increased). In fact the inside eye/outside eye temp differential is approaching a healthy 10 deg. C. What I infer from this is that despite upper level winds not increasing, lower level eyewall convection is increasing. As a result, entrainment below the eye-inversion is causing forced dynamic subsidence.

Very technical jibber-jabber for one word: 30 mile wide tornado. The storm has just been injected with nitro into its air mix (even so the load is increasing, the power is going up). I see this due to the remark intimating the warmest temp is found further than 5 miles from the center (default for temps in Items I, J, K). It'll be interesting to see how long it can sustain that. My guess is when the water depth below the core decreases below 60m.

[raygun]

last words of my previous post:

"decreases below 60m"

should actually intimate: water depth less than 60m. What I mean by this, the storm should maintain intensity at FL and increase its surface/FL ratio (e.g. from my advocated 0.73, progressively and incremently with respect to time, to the NHC's 0.91 limit - according to the definition of limit understood by those having comprehension of calculus), until the water depth becomes less than 60m.

[fishntex]

is suggesting to me that the storm is becoming more robust.

F. 151 DEG 121 KT

Do you recall what the last readings were? I remember winds less than 121K . . . I think.

[Sender]

What I infer from this is that despite upper level winds not increasing, lower level eyewall convection is increasing. As a result, entrainment below the eye-inversion is causing forced dynamic subsidence.

Okay mister book-learnin, so are you sayin this is gonna be a big ass storm? Cuz that's what it sounds like you're a sayin.

[steveegg]

I wish that NOAA/AF would have more than 1 aircraft updating the vortex messages more often. It sure is confusing everybody, and it's a few hours from landfall.