[jeffers]

That's the problem with forecasting, getting the curves right.

A linear track from the 1600 and 2000 plots put it directly over Sabine Pass. That 2000 plot is also 6 miles north east of the 1600 track (today) and 12 miles north of yesterday's 1700 track.

It seems to be hooking right, making Orange and Lake Charles more likely, with Port Arthur less likely.

I'm not changing estimated landfall yet, but wanted to raise the possibility.

This may just be a big wobble, and then again Heraldo might end up foiled again. Hope we don't see him saying PA dodged a bullet in the morning, while Lake Charles gets wiped out in secret.

[steveegg]

That's the problem with forecasting, getting the curves right.

And it doesn't help that the advisories/position updates have so much slop in them.

[floriduh voter]

And, hurricanes do not really have a brain but everyone including meteorologists talk about hurricanes as if they actually decide where they're going to go. Maybe that's because we name them.