For the benefit of someone with a home in Galveston County what does all that translate to? Is Joe B. of Accu-weather spot on - or out on a limb?
I've been watching Joe B. forecasts for the whole season -- I'm a subscriber to his site -- and he's been consistently saying 'Texas' for about 10 days -- since before Rita got named. During the season, he's certainly been right a lot more than wrong, and definitely right when it has mattered. We're getting close to the end, now, and right now you've gotta say that anyone expecting a hit anywhere from Galveston and Port Arthur is "right" -- you can't really hold anyone to a standard of better than a 40 mile error.
That all being said, I'm trying right now to find a GFDL model output -- I found a 48-hours-to-go model chart for Katrina from that model that was EXACTLY right. Unfortunately, Accuweather's site is whacked right now.