This is from Larry Cosgrove on easternuswx.com. Not sure it should be copy/pasted, but I can break the rules. :)
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http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?s=&showtopic=53733&view=findpost&p=634477
Some pointers I would like to mention about Rita:
1) Dry air intrusion is not an issue with this storm. Had the hurricane taken a southward track toward the Rio Grande Valley, it might have drawn in a downsloped Mexican cTw regime that would have weakened it. But the cyclone is enclosed in its own envelope of mT values, and entrainment of lower dewpoints is not likely until the center gets into TX on Saturday.
2) The satellite thunderstorm presentation is strengthening, but eyewall reformation is still going on. This deep monster should drop below 910MB and could get into 900MB territory before landfall.
3) I watch with concern how some exaggerate wobbles and NWP depictions. Viewed by rotation around the subtropical high moving into the Carolinas, the landfall option (IMO) is now down to a Freeport to Port Arthur corridor. A case can be made for a left shore of Galveston Bay, but such a call would not be wise until we see ERC finished and the pace of reformation of the heat ridge in NM (which ultimately will slow or stall Rita).
4) Calls for weakening, at least those marking degradation of the hurricane, are invalid if one considers the lack of a shearing mechanism and the very warm SSTs in the path of Rita. I am afraid that some do not want another dangerous, high impact storm affecting a highly populated area. Be it the Golden Triangle (Beaumont-Port Arthur-Lake Charles) or the Houston/Galveston metro, Rita is going to put somebody in a world of pain early Saturday morning. And I think she will be slowed by the ridge expansion to her west, implying more misery through flooding and tornadoes for E TX, SE OK, SW AR, and far W LA.
Just my two dollars...
Best Regards
Larry Cosgrove
Thanks for the Cosgrove update.
One thing I haven't researched yet--what are the differences between the NW Gulf Coast and the NE Gulf Coast. We know the NE Gulf Coast is relatively shallow, and a reasonable storm crippler.
Oops...You beat me too it.
A sobering assessment. Is he normally on-target? His reasoning seems sound.