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Then, he's ignoring the cone of uncertainty, which covers well to the west of Houston, and also ignoring that the computer models have recentered over Galveston. I'm not trying to be willfully pessimistic, but the above info is accurate, and Houston/Galveston are certainly not out of the woods. There's at least a 33% chance I would say that the eye moves west of Galveston.

There's at least a 33% chance I would say that the eye moves west of Galveston.

I think the error there is a complete dependence on mathematics, where he was looking at the physical.

The High Pressure area that has been restraining Rita is retreating to Florida, and this encourages Rita to fly more Northward. This also is in sync with a model that has been the most accurate for the past 48 hours, which akes this pressure zone and its movement into account.

I would consider the odds much less than one in three, though it is obviously possible as these storm have a mind of their own.

I'm looking at the BAMM/BAMD, LBAR, and A98E models, also from 0600 UTC (2AM EDT).

BAMM, BAMD, and LBAR all show a *direct* hit on Houston.

Models explained below (from Accuweather):

A98E - National Hurricane Center Atlantic 1998 Early Model
BAMM - Beta and Advection Model (Medium Layer)
BAMD - Beta and Advection Model (Deep Layer)
LBAR - Limited Area Barotropic Model
GFDL - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model

A98E - A statistical track model which looks at past storms which formed in the same place, and mixes this forecast with upper-level forecast model data from the GFS. Storms are classified based on location and movement, then specific meteorological equations are applied.

BAMM/BAMD - A track model which uses an altered version of forecast model data from the GFS with special meteorological equations that predict the evolution of tropical storms, including taking into account the "beta effect" of the earth's rotation. The BAMD uses an average of winds over the entire atmosphere from top to bottom (good for big storms), while the BAMM uses a medium vertical average (good for medium storms). There is also a BAMS (shallow) for small storms.

LBAR - A an altered version of forecast model data from the GFS with special meteorological equations and techniques (different from the BAM), including an average of winds over the entire atmosphere from top to bottom, that predict the evolution of tropical storms.

GFDL - An advanced 3-dimensional weather forecast model developed specifically for predicting hurricane movement. (resolutions).