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Part VI: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1490045/posts |
Posted on 09/22/2005 5:44:09 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Rita is completing its eyewall replacement cycle this morning...as the last report from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft showed that the inner 15 N mi wide eye had dissipated and a single 33 N mi wide eye existed. Maximum flight-level winds at 700 mb in the northeastern quadrant are 125-130 kt...which helps support an initial intensity of 120 kt. The aircraft data showed that another wind maxima has formed about 60 N mi from the center...which might be the start of another outer eyewall. The latest central pressure reported by the aircraft is 927 mb.
Rita is moving between 300-305 degrees at 8-9 kt. Rawinsonde data at 00z indicates that the mid-level ridge is still present over Texas. This feature should move eastward during the next 24-48 hr...allowing the current northwestward motion to become more northerly. Track guidance is now clustered about a landfall on the Upper Texas coast in roughly 30 hr...with the model track being spread between San Luis Pass and Sabine Pass. The forecast track up to landfall is essentially an update of the previous package. After landfall...the guidance become very divergent as high pressure build to the west and possibly north of Rita. Given the spread...the forecast track will call for little motion after 72 hr just as the previous forecast did. This stalling will pose a serious risk of very heavy rainfall well inland.
The intensity forecast is still problematic. Since Rita has completed the eyewall replacement cycle and is over the warm eddy of The Loop current...there is a chance it could strengthen during the next 12 hr. After that...it should moved north of the eddy... possibly start another eyewall cycle...and possibly experience increasing southerly shear. The intensity forecast thus calls for a slight increase in strength in 12 hr...follwed by slight weakening. An alternative scenario is that Rita does not strengthen...and gradually weakens due to shear until landfall. This could happen if the shear reaches the 25 kt values forecast by the GFS and SHIPS models.
Forecaster Beven
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 23/0900z 26.8n 91.0w 120 kt 12hr VT 23/1800z 27.6n 92.2w 125 kt 24hr VT 24/0600z 28.9n 93.6w 120 kt 36hr VT 24/1800z 30.4n 94.6w 80 kt...inland 48hr VT 25/0600z 31.5n 95.0w 45 kt...inland 72hr VT 26/0600z 33.0n 94.5w 30 kt...inland 96hr VT 27/0600z 33.0n 94.5w 25 kt...inland 120hr VT 28/0600z 33.0n 94.5w 25 kt...inland dissipating
I am back, we were not able to get out so we are bunkering in place. We are at my folks in a house that has taken a cat 3 with no damage.
See post 1564 if you are having second thoughts. 59 to Victoria and then points South and West
Do you know what the tides will be when Rita makes land fall?
high ? low?
Not the first time I've heard this since last night...How long did you sit in traffic?
Good morning, NN. You are doing an exceptionally good job w/these hurricane threads. Thank you. I've been wondering though, WHEN do you sleep?
I have a tide chart. Don't have a good fix on landfall time or location yet.
To %$^#@!@ long. With 2 2 1/2 month old babies no less. Next time we are going to do thing different. Besides we go t a call on our cell phones from the Red Roof Inn we had reservations at. The saaid they would not honor them, they were already full. We made those reservations Monday.
Thanks for your good thoughts and support.
OMG!
Welcome home.
Probably one of the few times you didn't want to hear that. Prayers for a safe hunker!
Morning everyone....only here briefly before heading off to work...whats the latest.
Updates 1697 forward.
Southwest Louisiana sounds like a horrible place to be in a hurricane -- lots of swampy, sinking land with tidal water creeping up from the south. I wonder how long they'll be able to stay on the air when they get hammered by Rita's dirty side.
Methane blowouts are also a problem. I think human activity at worse is just a contributing factor, but not the primary factor. The primary radiation that gets absorbed by the water within the earths oceans is infrared light. That wavelength of light gets absorbed in the upper surface layer of the worlds oceans. I really would like to see studies that analyze radiation (light) with more accuracy. To say that light from the sun has increased, is a general statement that is meaningless. What type of light increased ? Was it an equal increase across all wavelengths. All of these metrics are critical. Yet we have not been measuring the obvious. For example, if UV C radiation increased, it would have no effect on the Worlds Oceans.
This is a translation of the 0330 CDT time hurricane eye message.
I'm assuming the eye is filled w/fog (100% humidity). 8 NM W of CTR at flight level (700mb) of a 33 NM wide eye is found to be 2 Deg. C. warmer then that reported at the fix position. While a truly healthy storm would have at least a 10 degrees differential between inside and outside the eye, Rita at present only has a 5 Deg C differntial. Interesting eyewall feature. Winds arne't too shabby though, and are the highest seen over the last 7 obs. Standard height by the way for the 700mb is 3011 meters. So that should give one an idea how low the pressure acutally is (as the height indicated for FL at 700mb is 2452 meters.
Well, I'm off to catch some winks. Happy Hurricane Day everybody. Don't fret about it, you guys will be fine. What, with all those nice prayers (including mine) sent throneward, "who can be against us, if He be for us?" Oh, yeah, and Rm 8:35-39 too. G'night. ;)
Oh god.
It seems as if the current forecast calls for landfall roughly around 9:00am Saturday, which would bring the surge in with middling-high (but receding) tides.
Thank you! That's exactly what I was trying to find. Was a
bit disturbed by the little Wunderground models that they are
so divergent at this point.
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