"a solid conservative, who is unknown and uninspiring - WILL LOSE"
Two points
1) Even if a solid conservative can't win, it doesn't matter because the primary voters will ONLY vote for conservative candidates, so wer'e stuck with a noname conservative in 2008 whether you like it or not.
2) If you need name ID before the primary to win, then howcome Clinton defeated a sitting President in 1992 despite the fact that nobody knew who Clinton was in 1989?
"In 2000, we had a well known candidate, good name recognition, well funded, that the american people were comfortable with because his father had been president, who was the governor of a large state - AND WE LOST THE POPULAR VOTE."
You're rewritting history.
In 2000 we had the son of a failed President who was successfully painted as an idiot son of privilege by the Media and Gore campaign. Further Rove ran a mediocre campaign and we only lost the popular vote because of the stupid DUI revalation a week before the election.
"and in 2004, as an incumbent, we WON BY ONE STATE."
Again, Rove runs weak campaigns.
He just never loses.
You really are clueless.