If officials in NO had listed to Bastardi for days before Katrina struck, they would not have been able to say they were surprised. He nailed it exactly.
The Friday morning before landfall, Bastardi had it hitting Florida, as did NHC. That was when the 12Z models all shifted radically west, when they came out about noon to 2PM (which I was posting on as it happened.)
Then Bastardi put out a special afternoon column because of the model shift calling for a NO hit, at 4PM I believe. At 5PM NHC shifted the track west, to MS I believe; and then finally to the vicnitiy of NO at 11PM.
Bastardi demonstrated no special skill or insight and wasn't particularly ahead of NHC. He was simply following the models around, which he does most of the time, despite his model-bashing and shtick that he's got some sort of special pattern recognition insight.