You forgot your /wishful thinking tag. Three hours before Charlie was forcast to plow into Tampa/St. Pete, the storm turned and annihilated Punta Gorda. Then it headed for Orlando, where many from Tampa had evacuated to. We barely got any wind or rain.
A few miles of wobble in something this large this far away from land can mean hundreds of miles of difference in the actual landfall.
The Rita turn needed off the forecast track to hit New Orleans is about SEVEN TIMES LARGER than the slight deviation from the forecast track Charley made.