"they are reporting here in Houston it will slow to stong cat3 by landfall"
They also predicted that Rita would max out at cat 4. One thing they have not got a clue about is intensity. Not for Katrina and not for Rita. So If I were living in Houston...I would not bet my life on the NWC forcast for intensity.
Forecasting how weak or strong a Tropical Storm/Hurricane will be is the hard part...The NHC admits it in so many words....
Intensity forecasts are largely wild-butt guesses. You can tell if the environment is favorable or not, but whether the cane will respond as strong as you think or stronger is not something you really can tell. Rita definitely has responded more than expected.
We will see how she weakens when she undergoes eyewall replacement.