If true, then she went from TS to Cat 5 in less than 24 hours. I'm speechless.
Rather complicated to explain but it's not quite the big deal it's being portrayed as. The Dvorak Technique was designed for a human to guess the windspeed of a storm just by looking at Satellite. The AODT is a somewhat new and experimental technique to do this automatically with a computer.
There are three agencies that officially do this manually; The Satellite Analysis Branch of the NWS, the Air Force, and the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch of the Tropical Prediction Center (co-located with NHC in Miami.)
The AODT adjusted numbers have been T 6.9-7 for most of the time since the early morning hours, and NHC basically hasn't used them during this absence of recon; they've gone with the human-based Dvoraks, which have been one T number lower.
That said it's certainly quite possible Rita could make Cat 5 today.
From the AODT site:
The Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT) is a satellite-based algorithm developed at the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS) to aid the diagnosis of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity. It was developed as a guidance tool, and the intensity estimates/trends that are output on this web site should be interpreted in this regard, and not considered as part of any official estimate or advisory. Please consult your national TC forecast center for official estimates.
I am scared speecheless.
This seems to me to be an extraordinarily healthy storm. She looks to be about as large as Katrina (with a 25 NM eyewall) and was able to go to Cat 4 with an outflow channel entrained in Cuba. Now that it's free, she has a lot more power to develop. She is also just about to hit the Gulf loop, and a lot of energy will be gained. Considering that she is not going north right now, she is not hampered by the cold water that Katrina churned up.
Everyone knows that the Gulf can support a Cat 5 at this time. The wind shear was the only thing that was holding Rita off from impressive growth. That has now pretty much disappeared allowing her to power up.
pretty scary actually.